Mound Musings: Learning to Think Like a GM

Whenever possible, I like to share thoughts on ideas that could help readers become more successful in the fantasy baseball arena. The question I get asked most often is, "What do you think of and would you rather have or in your rotation?" Great question, for sure, and I'm always ready to provide my humble opinion. However, I also see a lot of questions like, "Why is in that team's rotation, and why don't they call up instead?" Believe me, I ask myself that question all the time! But, many years ago, I realized something that changed my whole thought process regarding roster decisions. I learned I needed to think like a GM.

As much as it may annoy us, general managers (and managers) don't really take the fantasy impact of their decisions into account. And, what seems obvious to us, may have a plethora of factors involved that makes that obvious move counter-productive for a major league team. I think you'll find that if you look at your roster, and the available players on the waiver wire, in the context of major league baseball, rather than putting too much emphasis on the needs of your fantasy team today, your decisions will be easier and offer more impact. That is what we'll look at in this edition of the Musings.

There are a lot of reasons that guy is pitching and your guy isn't.

I tried to find a good example of a struggling pitcher being in the rotation while seemingly better options are being demoted to the minors or being reassigned to bullpen duty. Let's consider the San Francisco Giants, and in particular, we'll focus on Jeff Samardzija.

Early in the season, Madison Bumgarner was on the disabled list, Johnny Cueto got off to a great start before an injury took him out, and then, after a few very rough outings, Samardzija joined them. The Giants scrambled a bit and eventually filled out their rotation with Ty Blach, Chris Stratton, Derek Holland, Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez, while one of their top prospects, Shaun Anderson, got off to a solid start at Double-A Richmond. In the past couple weeks, they have had the three injured guys return to action. There aren't enough baseballs to go around every fifth day, so who gets the rotation spots?

Anderson is still being groomed as a starter after relieving in college. Blach wasn't really a strong starter so he was already in the pen. There were, however, some guys who made a good case to stay in the rotation. Who has been the weakest performer among their numerous options? At 1-5, with an ugly 6.42 ERA and an inflated 1.67 WHIP over nine starts, the Shark, on numbers alone, should be out, right? For many reasons, he's in the rotation, and if healthy, will likely stay there. Let's explore why.

Here are some things to keep in mind:

• MLB GM's play in a keeper league – We sometimes play in redraft leagues, and sometimes in keeper leagues, but real GMs always play in keeper leagues they would like to turn into dynasties. The nature of their position demands they constantly try to win when possible, while also building future winners. That's a big part of Samardzija's situation. If the Giants can secure a playoff berth, they need Samardzija, so they want him in sync and healthy. Of course, they don't get to draft a whole new team next March. So, they might like to compete for a World Series title this season, but it's not always in the cards, so they might decide their best play is to build for 2019, or maybe even 2020. By definition, that will require collecting and protecting the key young talent needed to achieve that goal. The best young talent in the organization will often be judiciously protected, especially early in the season or if injuries are involved – that is, they may choose to promote less valuable pieces when needed in April or May, keeping the best young players off the major league roster to avoid starting their arbitration clock. You have probably heard the comment, "They aren't going anywhere this year, so there's no need to rush to the big leagues." Minor league baseball is intended to be a training ground. Perhaps their top young pitching prospect needs to further develop his promising change-up. Maybe there are some inefficient aspects of his mechanics that can be smoothed out with some added work. These things can usually be accomplished with less stress in the minors. Just keep in mind, the focus will almost always be on developing their best (the keepers) to the fullest, while plugging gaps with less valuable players (in fantasy terms, next year's probable roster cuts).

• Yes, money does matter – I won't spend a lot of time on this one, but it does speak pretty loudly when player moves are planned. A team's roster consists of players making millions of dollars, and even more importantly, ticking clocks. Teams maintain control over players for a defined period of time. After a guy has been in the major leagues for so many days, he becomes eligible for arbitration. That can be problematic for smaller market teams (more so than the wealthier teams), and after a few years of arbitration, even the large market teams will see their best players entering the free agent arena. As mentioned above, teams will try very hard to delay that inevitability as long as possible with their most prized prospects. That leads to another telltale hint regarding the anticipated future performance of a young pitcher. If a team makes little or no effort to maximize the duration of their control, it's very possible they feel the player has limited upside.

• Minor league numbers don't always translate – Another fairly common misconception is that a pitcher who dominates in the minors should also be able to pitch very effectively immediately after being promoted. That likelihood depends heavily on two things. First, a pitcher with a limited arsenal (but very good stuff with what he has) can often be pretty successful against minor league hitters but could struggle when that limited repertoire is needed to navigate through a very competent batting order multiple times. Remember, many of the hitters at the Triple-A level, are fringy, spare parts for the parent team. That is very different from a talent-laden big league lineup. In fact, I have generally focused on Double-A performance when doing my analysis. It's not as prevalent as it once was, but a lot of teams still train their best and brightest prospects at that level. Secondly, a pitcher with an unorthodox delivery can often get by with rather pedestrian stuff. Here's another tidbit to file away: These are the types of pitchers who might be very effective for a few outings in the majors but then collapse as the hitters study them and figure out how to pick up and see through that deceptive motion. Long term success as a starting pitcher will almost always require a minimum of three quality pitches, and the command to throw any to them at any time, in any count. Occasionally a pitcher can survive with less, but what they have would need to be exceptional.

• The organizational blueprint must be based on the future – This might be a topic others could refute. Think about the phrase, "That was yesterday, but what have you done for me today?" With the explosion of incredibly intricate statistical formulas, there has been, in my humble opinion, a growing over-reliance on past performances to establish values for a player going forward. Don't get me wrong, in another life, I was a senior research analyst. I know the true value of valid, statistical data. However, like a general manager, when I decide what I am willing to pay for a pitcher on draft day, to be successful, I have to base my valuation on what I expect in the future, not so much on what that pitcher has done in the past. Pitchers are human. That means they are not pre-programmed automatons. Some will be, "what you see is what you get" at this stage of their career, but many more likely will be destined to improve – some dramatically – on their past statistics, while others will regress – again some quite dramatically. General managers have to be in tune with that fact to be successful, and you will enjoy a much higher level of success in fantasy baseball with that vision. That's what the Musings is all about. We are on a quest to uncover a crystal ball!
  

• Yankees' right-hander Domingo German impressed me again in his last start against Toronto. He has the tools to be successful at the highest level and just needs to trust his stuff. His numbers don't reflect it yet, but when he believes he can get good hitters out, I think he's going to be pretty effective.

• I sometimes wish a pitcher I'm excited about will throw in a couple clinkers so his owner might entertain a trade. Such is the case with Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals. Every time I watch him, I want to call my broker and put a buy order in. He still has some growing to do, but he is one to acquire in keeper formats.

• Jays' southpaw J.A. Happ has really struggled lately, with command being his nemesis. He's allowed 13 runs over his last two starts, raising his ERA to an unsightly 4.44, and he has even admitted all the talk about a trade before the deadline has been a distraction. Like I said, pitchers are quite human.

• The Dodgers now anticipate having Walker Buehler back in their rotation this weekend. I think they might go easy on him during this first start since he hit the disabled list, especially with the All-Star break coming up, but I anticipate a big second half. Of note, his return will tentatively push Alex Wood to the bullpen.

• Garrett Richards left his last start in the third inning with what was being labeled, "right forearm irritation," but an MRI found damage to his UCL. No word yet on whether he will undergo surgery, but this UCL was the same thing he elected to treat with platelet-rich injections, and he hasn't been completely healthy since.

• The Braves announced that Mike Soroka may not be back until September. They are in a bit of a quandary with their current position in the standings. He has had some shoulder issues, and while they would love to get into postseason play this year, they aren't at all comfortable risking their very bright future.