Oak's Corner: The Matt Kemp Resurgence

The Week That Was

With all the success the Mariners are having right now (more on that later), I feel like it's still overlooked just how great Jean Segura has been in fantasy leagues this year. Segura enters the Mariners four-game set with the Red Sox hitting a massive .347, the second-highest mark in baseball. That in itself would be a huge value, but he has also scored 51 runs, swiped 14 bags and surprisingly knocked in 42 runs. That across the board production has provided a nice value from his NFBC Main Event ADP of 72.

The Mariners lineup is missing Robinson Cano, but with Mitch Haniger making his case for an All-Star nod and Nelson Cruz heating up, the Mariners lineup is scoring runs and winning games, with Segura sparking the offense. He doesn't walk or hit the ball especially hard, but his combination of elite contact (13.3 percent strikeout rate), speed and a 23.1 percent line drive rate make him great at what he does. I wouldn't look to sell high on Segura, as he's just building on a great 2017, so I want to hold him all season long.

While Segura was a great value at his price, due to draft price, he's nowhere near as huge a value as Dodger outfielder Matt Kemp. With an ADP of 270 in NFBC Main Event drafts, Kemp was selected in nearly the 20th round in 15-teamers and has destroyed that draft price. Through 226 plate appearances, Kemp is hitting .335, good for third in the National League, to go with 10 homers and 41 RBI. The Dodgers have had injuries all over their roster, and Kemp has been a huge stabilizing force for them in the middle of the lineup. He's only two years removed from a 35 homer/108 RBI season and somehow is only 33, but I will admit he wasn't a draft target for me after his 19-homer season in a year where it felt like everyone hit at least 25.

He has ramped up his hard hit rate to 46.3 percent, a career-high, and he has returned his fly ball rate to 37.5 percent, more along his career averages after dipping last year to 28.2 percent. While he does have a lot of good stuff going on, the .400 BABIP does lead all of baseball and with a career BABIP of .340 (and also lacking his previous speed), that number is going to come down and bring his batting average with it. With his draft day price almost zero, I'm fine holding him and riding the wave, but he's a guy I'd put on the trade market, and if someone is enough of a believer in the resurgence and wanted to pay a good (not even great) price for him, I would be pleased to move him pretty rapidly.

Jose Ramirez hit 29 homers in 2017, destroying his 2016 career-high 11 homers. He looks to be on his way to another destruction, as he mashed his 20th homer on Thursday, putting him third in all of baseball in big flies. Incredibly, he's upping the homers while still only striking out in 11.4 percent of his plate appearances. To go along with the continued masterful contact rate, he has increased his walk rate to 13 percent, up from 8.1 percent last season. His hard rate has stayed steady after he boosted it significantly in 2017, and he has pushed his fly ball rate up over 40 percent for the first time, all while maintaining his strong line drive numbers.

To add to all the fun power numbers, Ramirez has also tossed in eight stolen bases as he looks primed to join the 40/20 club this season. It's pretty wild to think back to April 20 when Ramirez was hitting .188 after three weeks, and the questions about whether he was overdrafted based on only one great season were beginning. Ramirez is flat out fun to watch play. I think his hit tools are absolutely legit and I'd hold him if I own him and would gladly pay anywhere near his draft day price to obtain him.

Speaking of slow starts this year, Evan Gattis was horrible in the first month of the season, hitting .200 with only one homer through his first 25 games. Since May 1, Gattis has been a total monster (especially considering his position), hitting .280 with 12 homers and 34 RBI in 107 at-bats. Gattis' hard hit rate in March and April was 27.3 percent, but he has turned that around in a big way with a mark of more than 40 percent since. Among players eligible at catcher, Gattis leads all with 13 homers and with 42 RBI. In a season where not many catchers have produced (and the top drafted catcher is currently hitting .187), Gattis has smoked his draft day price as the sixth catcher off the board with an ADP of 141.

Gattis' strikeout rate has increased to 22.1 percent from his career-low in 2017, but he's also hitting the ball harder and also at a career-high 47.9 percent fly ball rate and he has already rebounded significantly from his poor 12 homer output in 2017. Gattis hits in a great lineup and I'm not looking to move him right now. I look forward to leaving him slotted in at catcher all season long. He also gets most of his starts at DH, saving the wear and tear most catchers will encounter as the long season progresses.

Miles Mikolas was a tough guy to value in the offseason, as his unknown was large, and when things settled in late March, he ended up with an ADP of 263 in NFBC Main Event drafts. After struggling with a 6.44 ERA in 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, Mikolas took his talents to the Yomiuri Giants of the Japan Central League for three seasons. The highest ERA he posted in Japan was 2.45 in 2016 as he made 62 starts over three season in Japan. His return to the United States with the Cardinals has been exceptional, as he currently sports a 2.43 ERA through his first 13 starts, good for sixth-best in the National league among qualified starters.

Mikolas' strikeout numbers have been low so far this year with a 6.64 K/9 strikeout rate, but he has exhibited elite control, walking under 1.00 batters per nine. He has combined the exquisite walk rate with a ton of ground balls, posting a 51.6 percent so far this year, which is the fourth best mark in the National League. He has returned to the U.S. throwing harder at 94.2 mph, but also throwing less fastballs and more breaking balls. Watching him pitch, it appears that he learned how to mix and match in Japan, which has allowed him to be very effective, despite the lack of strikeouts and a swinging strike rate at under 10 percent. The .259 BABIP has helped, and while the ERA very likely won't at its current range, I think the command and heavy ground ball rate will keep him solid. I would only move him if a very good offer came along.

After hitting 59 homers in 2017, the thought of Giancarlo Stanton heading to Yankee Stadium to hit with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez seemed too good to be true and pushed Stanton's draft price into the first round. Stanton answered the hype with two Opening Day homers to really build the buzz, but it hasn't been especially smooth sailing since then. Stanton does have 15 homers but he doesn't even rank in the top 50 in MLB in RBI and is hitting only .248 through 63 games. The biggest concern with looking at his first couple of months in New York is the increased strikeout rate, not only from his career numbers but especially from 2017. Stanton really took a nice step up in his contact rate last year, posting a career-low 23.6 percent strikeout rate, but that number has jumped to 31.6 percent so far this year. In addition, his walk rate has dropped to a career low 8.6 percent.

Stanton is still hitting the ball well with a 41.4 percent hard hit rate, but the strikeout numbers have certainly impaired his counting stats and batting average. Stanton was very streaky in 2017, with 21 homers through the first three months of the season, then following up with a two-month stretch where he crushed 30 big flies. The weather is warming on the East Coast, and as long as Stanton can avoid injuries, I think he's going to have to find a hot streak soon. If anyone in your league is looking to move him (doubtful considering what they paid for him), I'd grab him now, as I think a home run flurry is coming and he is still going to challenge J.D. Martinez for the major league home run title.

Hitting has always been the question with Billy Hamilton, but for most of his career (aside from a rough 2015 during which he hit .226), he has found a way to hit around .250, which was good enough considering the value of his speed on the bases and defense in center field. Hamilton is currently having the worst offensive season of his career, hitting only .190 while also striking out a lot. It's pretty jarring to look at a list of the league leaders in strikeout rate and see a bunch of guys with power, then Billy Hamilton checking in sixth worst at 30.3 percent. It's completely inexcusable for a guy with little to no power to be striking out at such an insanely high rate, especially considering his previous high was his 21 percent rate in 2017.

Hamilton's struggles on offense have caused the Reds to move him down in the order, as after hitting leadoff for a bunch of games in April, he has hit ninth in all but one of his starts since May 1. The drop in the order not only gives him less plate appearances overall, but also limits the number of times he happens to be on base with no one in front of him and no outs. So while you probably didn't draft him for his average and certainly not for power, the stolen bases have also been a huge disappointment this year with only 10 so far in 64 games after topping 55 steals in all of the past three seasons. It has gotten even uglier as of late as he has only attempted four steals in his last 25 games, and two of those were caught stealings. You can't trade Hamilton right now at the discounted price, but he is very hard to put in your lineup unless you're desperate for steals and don't want to miss out on that three-steal game. But when Hamilton isn't finding himself in base stealing opportunities, he is really providing nothing as he gives you nothing in power and his runs scored, previously a good second fantasy category for Hamilton (he scored 85 runs last year), can no longer a plus category while hitting ninth.

FAAB Feelings

Andrew Suarez – This is mostly a matchup play, but Suarez has also been pretty decent lately. Suarez gets two starts this week, and not only are they home in a great pitcher's park, but he faces the Marlins and the Padres, two of the worst three teams in baseball by OPS. He does face Caleb Smith, who has been very good, in the first start, but he should have a good chance at a win and solid line in both starts. Suarez has had issues with hard contact (his hard rate is currently 40 percent) and homers, allowing 1.36 HR/9, but AT&T Park should help him there, and his home ERA so far this year is a very solid 3.55 against a 6.18 ERA on the road.

He has made 10 starts so far this year in his first taste of the major leagues and has a pretty solid strikeout rate of 8.5 K/9 while only walking 1.87 batters per nine. His ERA does stand at an ugly 4.92 overall, but his 63.4 percent strand rate has hurt him, and his FIP is much more appealing at 3.85. I think he's a decent arm, but more than that, the matchups are what I am paying for this week with those two home starts. He will get some attention in FAAB this week due to the schedule, but you should be able to grab him with a moderate bid as his surface numbers will not excite anyone. He's very available this week, too, as he's only owned in 53 percent of NFBC 15-teamers and only at nine percent in the 12-team NFBC Online Championship.

Dylan Covey – Covey was legitimately bad last year and became a pitcher that DFS players targeted to stack against. He pitched 70 innings for the White Sox in 2017, starting 12 games and posting an abysmal 7.71 ERA. Well, 2018 has been a different story for Covey as he currently sports a 2.29 ERA through his first six starts with the White Sox. His strikeout rate has bumped up in a big way to 8.41 K/9 after a rough 5.27 K/9 strikeout rate last year. He also has significantly cut his walk rate as it currently stands at 2.80 BB/9. He's throwing his fastball more than a mile per hour harder so far this year at 93.8 mph, and while his swinging strike rate is still low at 7.8 percent, it's up nearly two percent from last year.

Covey has limited hard contact better at 30.5 percent, but the stat I like the most in looking at his current profile is his 61 percent ground ball rate, up from 48. percent in 2017. Granted, the zero homers allowed so far is not going to last, but I really like his chances to limit home run balls with that hard hit / ground ball combo. Covey is scheduled for two starts this week, which is nice but is nowhere near the matchups Suarez has as he gets a road start against Cleveland and then a home start against my A's. The Cleveland start is scary, as they currently rank fifth in MLB in OPS, and the A's are middle of the pack but seem to go hot and cold game to game as much as any team. I'll bid on Covey this week to see if the improvements are real, as it will likely be the last chance to grab him, as he's already 68 percent owned in NFBC 15-teamers, but still only 10 percent owned in 12-teamers.

A Closer Look

A hat tip to Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski on this one, as he was on the Nationals' Justin Miller before anyone and has been tweeting about his dominance for about week, but it's nuts how good Miller has been in relief since getting called up. In 10.2 innings with the Nats, he has an amazing 21:0 K:BB rate – and yes, you read that correctly. He has allowed only two hits for a bonkers 0.19 Whip, and in what is probably the coolest stat, he actually has a negative FIP at -0.84. Miller was just as dominant in Triple-A this year, striking out 23 batters while only walking three in 13.2 innings. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings, his swinging strike rate of 19.6 percent trails only Josh Hader.

Miller was bad last year at Triple-A in the Angels system with a 5.48 ERA in 46 innings, while only striking out 7.24 batters per nine, so this breakout is pretty wild. After looking back at his career, although he did have a couple of nice years in relief, he wasn't nearly this dominant. The numbers so far this year are so ridiculous that I think he's worth a bid this weekend in deeper leagues just to see if he has really figured something out. In one interview, he noted that he has closed off his body even more during set up to create deception, and he also lost a good amount of weight after being released by the Angels last year. The path to saves is crowded in Washington, as Sean Doolittle has been great,and Ryan Madson is likely next in line, but neither one of those guys have ever been considered safe from injuries, and Miller could be a value just for the ratios and strikeouts and, hey, he does have four wins already, too.

Series of the Weekend

Red Sox at Mariners – There are only four teams in baseball at least 15 games over .500, and when two of them match up, it has to be the best series of the weekend. However, the Cubs visiting St. Louis is also a great series this weekend. The Mariners keep finding ways to win games, and due to their proficiency in close games, they sit at 44-25 even though their run differential is only plus 26. After a bumpy start to the season with a DL stint for a sprained ankle and a number of other bumps and bruises, Nelson Cruz is finally back to his old self, smoking homers for the Mariners offense. Over his last 21 games, Nellie is hitting .299 with nine homers and 20 RBI, and it's very clear the Mariners offense has a different feel to it when they have a healthy and productive Cruz hitting fourth every night.

The Red Sox just keep doing everything well, and their offense currently tops baseball in runs scored and batting average, and they are second only to the Yankees in homers, slugging and OPS. Their pitching has also excelled to start the season, as they rank fifth in team ERA and second in strikeouts. Their lineup features three of the top 10 players in MLB in OPS with Mookie Betts leading baseball at 1.171, J.D. Martinez close behind in third and Andrew Benintendi in ninth. It's probably pretty easy to score a ton of runs when those three guys hit 1-2-3 in your lineup. This series also features the top two closers in the American League in Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimbrel, with an incredible 47 saves and 101 strikeouts between them already in only 66 combined innings. The teams battled in a fantastic game to open the series on Thursday with the Red Sox prevailing 2-1, and this should be a blast of a weekend in Seattle.