AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Rafael Devers would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (AL-Only)
Joe Biagini TOR SP D No No 2
Danny Duffy KC SP B 3 7 Owned
Nick Tropeano LA SP C No 2 5
Ryan Yarbrough TB SP C No 2 5
John Axford TOR RP E No No 1
Brad Brach BAL RP D 4 9 Owned
Tyler Clippard TOR RP D 12 25 45
Mychal Givens BAL RP D 2 5 Owned
Blaine Hardy DET RP E No
This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Rafael Devers would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (AL-Only)
Joe Biagini TOR SP D No No 2
Danny Duffy KC SP B 3 7 Owned
Nick Tropeano LA SP C No 2 5
Ryan Yarbrough TB SP C No 2 5
John Axford TOR RP E No No 1
Brad Brach BAL RP D 4 9 Owned
Tyler Clippard TOR RP D 12 25 45
Mychal Givens BAL RP D 2 5 Owned
Blaine Hardy DET RP E No No 1
Jim Johnson LA RP E No No 2
Keynan Middleton LA RP D 23 49 Owned
Seung Hwan Oh TOR RP D No No 2
Carson Smith BOS RP D No No 1
Ryan Tepera TOR RP E No No 1
Mitch Garver MIN C C 2 5 11
Brock Holt BOS 2B E No No 1
Rougned Odor TEX 2B B 5 13 Owned
Gio Urshela TOR 3B E No No 2
Pete Kozma DET SS E No No 1
Greg Allen CLE OF C No No 3
Byron Buxton MIN OF A 9 19 Owned
Dustin Fowler OAK OF B 12 25 45
Mikie Mahtook DET OF C No No 2
Joey Rickard BAL OF E No No 1

Starting Pitcher

Joe Biagini, Blue Jays: Sloppy Joe has seen his numbers steadily decline since his surprising 2016, but he's still the next guy in line when Toronto needs another starter, and that time is now with Marcus Stroman on the DL. Biagini's average four-pitch mix can be effective when he's in a groove, but too often last season the right-hander couldn't hit his spots and balls sitting over the middle of the plate, and that trend has continued into 2018. He might give you some innings, but don\t expect too much else from him. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Danny Duffy, Royals: A brutal stretch for the left-hander ended Tuesday with his first win of the season, and there's some reason for optimism that he's turned a corner. Duffy, and Royals pitching coach Cal Eldred, thought he might be tipping pitches out of the windup, so he ditched it entirely and worked exclusively out of the stretch in his last start with much better results. He'll probably never develop into the ace he teased he might a couple of years ago, but if he got cut loose in a shallower format there's still enough upside here to be worth picking back up. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: Owned

Nick Tropeano, Angels: Tropeano returned to the rotation Saturday with a quality start, albeit a quiet one that includes a 2:3 K:BB. The 27-year-old remains a frustrating pitcher to have on your roster, as he has trouble staying healthy and injuries have sapped his fastball of the velocity he showed as a prospect, but he'll still pitch just well enough to be useful once in a while. Given that he hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since 2015, though, he's best left as a streaming option. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays: The absolute funniest thing I have heard on any baseball broadcast so far this season came Wednesday, when poor befuddled Braves announcers Chip Carey and Joe Simpson spent about 10 minutes in the middle of the game trying to make sense of the Tampa rotation. Yarbrough was on the mound at the time, and while he got cuffed around by Atlanta in that one, he also has an 11:0 K:BB in 10 innings since replacing Yonny Chirinos as Tampa's fourth starter. (Or their fifth starter, according Chip and Joe, since it never occurred to them that the Rays might have two separate rotation spots given over to bullpen days and such.) Yarbrough's arsenal is pure crafty lefty, as his fastball sits around 90 mph but he had enough movement and deception with his changeup to keep hitters off balance. I wrote him up last week, but after lasting five innings in each of his last two starts and seeming to do enough to lock down a spot, his value is ticking upwards. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Relief Pitcher

John Axford / Seung Hwan Oh / Ryan Tepera, Blue Jays: Tyler Clippard (see below) appears to be getting the first shot at Toronto's closing job in the wake of Roberto Osuna's assault arrest, but the Jays have other plausible options for saves if he falters. Axford hasn't closed since 2015 and hasn't recorded a big-league save since 2016, but the veteran is pitching reasonably well to begin this season, and manager John Gibbons is old-school enough to think ninth-inning experience is a valuable skill. Oh's been lights out and looking like the pitcher he was in 2016 rather than the disaster he became last year, but Gibbons seems to prefer him in a high-leverage setup role. Tepera has the biggest fastball and has been solid in a middle relief and setup role ever since breaking into the Jays bullpen. Unless (until?) Clippard stumbles, though, they should all be considered speculative plays if you're looking for saves. Axford – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1 / Oh – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2 / Tepera – 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Brad Brach, Orioles: His mid-April struggles caused him to lose the tenuous grip he had on the O's closing gig, but he's turned things around and with Darren O'Day now on the shelf, Brach has picked up saves in each of his last two appearances. Mychal Givens got the save Saturday, though, so another time share could be developing, especially if Brach starts getting hit hard again. His 11.5 K/9 so far would be a career high if he can keep it up, but his fastball velocity is down and his walk rate is up. Still, if you need saves, he should be able to nab some through the rest of the month until O'Day, and eventually Zach Britton, are back. 12-team Mixed: $4; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team AL: Owned

Tyler Clippard, Blue Jays: The veteran has been ping-ponging around the majors over the last few years, suiting up for seven different teams since 2015 (A's-Mets-Diamondbacks-Yankees-White Sox-Astros-Jays), but some good early results this season and Osuna's issues have allowed him to fall back into a closer role this week. Clippard, as always, relies mainly on his changeup to get strikeouts while occasionally trying to sneak a high fastball by batters, and it's an approach that can make hitters look very bad when it's working, and make balls travel a long way when it isn't. Right now it's working, so he should rack up some saves, but he's a lot more volatile than his current numbers would suggest. Still, saves are saves, and Osuna's situation means it could be a long time before he's back on a mound. 12-team Mixed: $12; 15-team Mixed: $25; 12-team AL: $45

Mychal Givens, Orioles: Givens recorded a five-out save Saturday, but it's not yet clear whether that was simply due to Brach being unavailable or whether Givens will be a regular part of the ninth-inning mix for Buck Showalter. To his credit, Givens has put up much better numbers than Brach so far this season, and his mid-90s fastball and nasty slider have always marked him as a potential future closer. As Brach has already spit the bit once this season, Givens might end up being the shrewder investment. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: Owned

Blaine Hardy, Tigers: The journeyman lefty has made a career out of posting good to great numbers at Triple-A Toledo but being mediocre at best in the majors, but Hardy has taken that pattern to another level in 2018. His 30:4 K:BB in 24.1 innings for Toledo is superb, and it's bought him an opportunity to make his first ever big-league start Sunday. He'll likely return to long relief when Jordan Zimmermann is back off the DL, and at 31 years old he's got no real upside, but Hardy could provide useful innings in AL-only formats and a good performance Sunday could put some pressure on Mike Fiers' rotation spot. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Jim Johnson Angels: The Angels appear to have settled on Johnson as their temp closer until Keynan Middleton is ready to resume the role, but considering Johnson has blown two of his three saves chances over the last week or so, that still doesn't make him a very appealing pickup. Middle ton should be back in the saddle fairly quickly. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Keynan Middleton, Angels: Activated off the DL on Thursday, Middleton walked two batters in his first appearance but looked more like his usual self Saturday. Mike Scioscia can be frustrating when it comes to his bullpen usage, but right now there's no reason to suspect Middleton won't reclaim the full-time closer role once he's proven he's 100 percent. 12-team Mixed: $23; 15-team Mixed: $49; 12-team AL: Owned

Carson Smith, Red Sox: The back end of the Boston bullpen is slowly rounding into form, with Smith the latest set-up arm to step it up. His numbers on the season still look a bit sketchy, but he's been dynamite over his last seven appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 10:0 K:BB in 5.2 innings with three holds. Joe Kelly remains the first option to fill in for Craig Kimbrel, so don't expect saves from Smith, but he should have value as a high-K relief option. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Catcher

Mitch Garver, Twins: Jason Castro's knee injury is more serious than the Twins originally thought, which leaves Garver as their starter behind the plate for an indeterminate amount of time. Garver's responded with a modest five-game hitting streak, and his .269/.333/.442 slash line on the season with two homers in 18 games is miles better than the average scrubby backup. His power potential is undeniable, too – he popped 17 homers in 88 games last year for Triple-A Rochester. If you need help behind the plate, the 27-year-old should be a priority add. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $11

Second Base

Brock Holt, Red Sox: Holt is back off the DL to resume his utility role, but with Dustin Pedroia's return finally on the horizon, there likely won't be much playing time available for the 29-year-old once Eduardo Nunez is also bumped back into a utility role. Holt's position flex is useful, but that's about it. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Rougned Odor, Rangers: Odor was activated from the DL on Friday, but it looks like Texas may have jumped the gun – he's gone 0-for-6 in two games with five strikeouts since rejoining the lineup. The collapse of the 24-year-old's batting average in 2017 has only continued into 2018, with his extreme pull tendencies becoming almost painful to watch in the age of the shift – sure, it's a small sample due to his injury, but Odor's oppo rate so far this season is a pitiful 3.3 percent. Basically, his swing is a mess. He's still elevating the ball at his usual rate, so some homers should come eventually, but he's turning into a poor man's Joey Gallo before our eyes, and that's not a profile that carries a lot of fantasy value. If he got cut loose and you need some middle infield help, he's still worth taking a chance on, but keep him firmly stashed on your bench until he shows some sign of turning things around. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $13; 12-team AL: Owned

Third Base

Gio Urshela, Blue Jays: The Cleveland castoff washed up on the shores of Lake Ontario and will be the latest Blue Jay to get a look on their infield. Urshela has mainly played third base in his career, but he saw action at both second base and shortstop last year and his first action in a Toronto uniform Saturday was at short, so who knows what the team's actual plan for him is. He's no long-term solution – he's hit for solid batting averages and a bit of power at Triple-A, but holds a career .589 OPS in the majors over 455 plate appearances – but the 26-year-old will get a chance to prove he can stick in a utility role, and with Lourdes Gurriel's demotion there are some at-bats available for him in the short term. As a reminder, though, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is slashing .386/.440/.649 as a 19-year-old at Double-A New Hampshire, and his 20-year-old sidekick Bo Bichette has a .272/.355/.400 line. The more the revolving doors on the Jays infield spin, the more obvious it is that the front office is just marking time until they feel that duo is ready for a promotion. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Shortstop

Pete Kozma, Tigers: The 30-year-old former Cardinal has gone 4-for-7 in two games since being called up for infield depth, and given how little Dixon Machado and Niko Goodrum have been contributing, that probably earns Kozma some extra at-bats over the next week or so. He's got a .579 career OPS in the majors, though, so that window for some small fantasy value isn't likely to remain open for long. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Outfield

Greg Allen, Cleveland: Allen was a deep league sleeper darling last year, but injuries prevented him from ever getting a real chance in Cleveland. The tables may have turned in 2018, however. Tyler Naquin joins Lonnie Chisenhall on the shelf and Bradley Zimmer isn't 100 percent, leaving Allen with a clear path to playing time in the short term. Allen doesn't offer any power, and on 0-for-12 start with six Ks since his promotion won't do him any favors, but if he gets consistent playing time he could make an impact in steals – he was 25-for-27 last year in 101 games across three levels last season, and started off 2018 at Triple-A going 6-for-7 on the basepaths in 21 games. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Byron Buxton, Twins: The ever-frustrating Buxton is back in center field for the Twins, which is good news for the team's pitching staff but potentially not great news for anyone hoping to get more than second-hand fantasy value out of him. He's gone 1-for-10 with five Ks in three games since coming off the DL, and given his usual struggles with his swing, it could be a while before he gets into a groove. The upside is still massive, of course, and he's still only 24, but at this point he looks like the kind of player you stash or pick up when you need a couple of miracles to be competitive, not a foundation piece for a stable roster. 12-team Mixed: $9; 15-team Mixed: $19; 12-team AL: Owned

Dustin Fowler, Athletics: There's a certain karmic justice in the fact that Fowler's first big-league hit came in Yankee Stadium, after his career nearly ended last season while he was in pinstripes. Fowler will get every opportunity to cement himself as the A's center fielder, and with regular playing time he could provide some pop along with his speed – he hit 13 homers with 13 steals in 70 Triple-A games in 2017, and hit three homers with seven steals in 29 Triple-A games to begin this season. There's modest five-category upside here, especially as Oakland's offense looks to be quite solid around him. 12-team Mixed: $12; 15-team Mixed: $25; 12-team AL: $45

Mikie Mahtook, Tigers: Called back up when Leonys Martin landed on the DL, Mahtook wasn't exactly forcing his way back to the majors at Triple-A, putting together a .250/.327/.432 slash line for Toledo with 29 Ks in 22 games. He's started three straight games since his promotion, going 2-for-12 with a walk and a steal and, maybe more importantly, only one strikeout. If Mahtook can get back to the form he flashed at the plate last year there's a spot in the Tigers' outfield for him, even if only as the main reserve. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Joey Rickard, Orioles: With Anthony Santander's service-time obligations as a Rule 5 pick finally fulfilled, he'll head down to the minors to get regular at-bats, with Rickard taking his spot on the 25-man roster. Right field remains a mess for Baltimore, so if he gets hot he could steal some starts, but most likely he'll just be a spare body on the bench. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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