Regan's Rumblings: Playing Time Problems

Let's just say first off that I may be regretting parts of last week's column. My first headline stated that "Shohei Ohtani isn't a fantasy ace, nor is he an above-average DH." Let's look at the numbers:

Average MLB DH this year: .206/.301/.297, 22 AB/HR
Ohtani: .368/.400/.842, 6.3 AB/HR

How about on the mound?

Average MLB starting pitcher this year: 3.99 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Ohtani: 2.08 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9

I will say that the sample remains minute (two starts and 19 at-bats), but there is at least a possibility we're witnessing history here. I am in the camp where spring stats DO mean something, though in some cases (like this one), apparently, they do not. Now off to see if I can get a share of Ohtani somewhere.

Now on to this week's topic, playing time. Typically, in 12-team mixed leagues, you're not drafting a lot of platoon or part-time players. That what makes some of the following players so frustrating:

Ian Happ, OF/2B, CHC

I was giddy as a Happ owner when he homered on the first pitch of the against Miami's Jose Urena on Opening Day. Of course, Happ then struck out in six of his next seven at-bats and is now hitting .156/.229/.250 with a 51.4 K%. He also started just three of the last six games, yielding to Albert Almora, the defensively superior option. Happ had a strong rookie season in 2017, batting .253/.328/.514 with 24 homers in 413 plate appearances. However, considering that year's 31.2 K%, forecasting some bumpy times ahead wouldn't exactly have been going out on a limb. Happ routinely posted strikeout rates exceeding 20 percent in the minors, so at 23, he's far from a finished product. Also, Happ had just 104 at-bats at Triple-A before the Cubs promoted him, though given his .977 OPS at the time, it's hard to blame them. So, what to expect? A Triple-A stint could be on the table at some point, but probably not right away. I'd expect plenty of Almora versus left-handed pitching (.342/.412/.486 against LHP in 2017), but Happ should play against most RHP and some lefties when Javier Baez gets a day off. Should the elevated strikeout rate continue, a Schwarber-like Triple-A stint would probably be on the table.

Ryan McMahon, 1B, COL

McMahon breaks camp with the club after hitting .319/.365/.522 this spring: "Awesome, can't wait to get this guy on my fantasy team."

McMahon gets 15 plate appearances in the Rockies' first 12 games: "Should I dump McMahon for Colin Moran or Freddie Galvis?"

McMahon is off to an 0-for-13 start with two walks and seven strikeouts, perhaps due to the number of left-handers the team has faced early, but why even have him on the roster at this point? McMahon hit .304 versus southpaws in Triple-A last year and put up an .817 OPS against them in Double-A the previous year, so why not give him regular at-bats to see if he can settle in? I guess when you have four players for three positions, someone is going to get squeezed, and so far, that's McMahon. Neither Ian Desmond, Gerardo Parra nor Carlos Gonzalez are hitting much, but still no sign that McMahon is getting regular playing time anytime soon. McMahon walked and singled in his first two plate appearances Wednesday, so at least they know he's still on the roster. Unless you're desperate to better utilize McMahon's roster spot on your team, I'd hold onto him for a bit in redraft leagues, but if you want to cut bait for a hot waiver-wire pickup, that's understandable.

Ben Gamel, OF, SEA

Maybe he sits against some (or even most) left-handers, but once Gamel (oblique) is activated from the DL on Friday, Ichiro Suzuki's at-bats likely will drop sharply. Gamel had a solid first full season in 2017, batting .275/.322/.413 with 11 homers, 59 RBI and four stolen bases in 550 at-bats. Those numbers aren't jaw-dropping by any means, but after he hit .300-plus in each of his prior two seasons in Triple-A, I see room for growth in his game. Gamel needs to improve upon last year's 6.5 BB% to take a big step forward in the batting average department, but it's doable. Gamel has received some Brett Gardner comparisons in his climb up the ladder given his former affiliation with the Yankees organization, and I'd imagine the Mariners would be just fine with that level of production.

Yangervis Solarte, UT, TOR

Solarte has notched 500-plus plate appearances in three of his four seasons, but things aren't as certain this year. He's not listed at the top of the depth chart at any position. Despite that, however, Solarte is third on the team in plate appearances with 43 and is batting .294/.442/.528 with a pair of homers and an elite 5:9 K:BB. Solarte isn't going to put up elite fantasy numbers, but with qualifications at three positions (2B, SS, 3B), 20-homer upside and maybe a few steals, he's pretty valuable as a backup in a lot of formats if you have the roster space. Solarte has always made great contact (career 11.5 K%), though his walk rate for his career is fairly low at 7.7 percent. The walk rate he's shown this year (20.9 percent) isn't sustainable, but if he can keep it above 10 percent, he's that much more valuable in OBP formats. He's obviously not going to unseat Josh Donaldson, but Aledmys Diaz isn't exactly established at short, and Devon Travis has a 2.8 BB% contributing to a 3-for-34 start that includes a 14:1 K:BB. I think Solarte is a lock for 500-plus PA given the lack of quality ahead of him.

Derek Fisher, OF, HOU

Fisher has yet to hit much in the big leagues, batting .206/.292/.645 in 192 plate appearances the last two seasons. With five homers and five steals, he has flashed his 20/20 ability, but the hit tool doesn't appear to be there yet. The big issue has been a 34.4 K%, and with scarce playing time, it's been tough to get into a rhythm. Fisher is a strong possibility to be optioned to Triple-A once Yulieski Gurriel (hand) returns Friday, as Marwin Gonzalez would seem to be in line for more LF at-bats. J.D. Davis could also be sent out, but giving Fisher regular playing time in Triple-A may be the way to go. With the situation likely to be even more crowded once top-five overall prospect Kyle Tucker is ready around June (speculation), I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Fisher dealt for pitching help at or before the trade deadline. That's probably the only way he's going to get regular at-bats barring injury.

Domingo Santana, OF, MIL

Earlier this month, Santana went back-to-back games without starting, but since then he's started seven consecutive through Wednesday, so while he likely will still have a day off here and there, it's probably not going to be as frequent as we first feared. Santana is off to a slow start at .262/.340/.286 with just one XBH in 42 at-bats, but for now there's no real reason to be overly concerned. Santana's K% is down a bit from last year's 29.3 percent, and though the lack of power is worth noting, unless there is some physical issue, it's doubtful he's suddenly turned powerless after hitting 30 homers last year.

Nick Williams, OF, PHI

Williams appears to be a fourth outfielder, as he's started just four games this season, and with Scott Kingery also around to steal at-bats, one wonders how much playing time Williams will get. Williams hit a promising .288/.338/.473 last year in 343 plate appearanches, including 12 home runs. However, his lack of plate discipline in the minors followed him to Philadelphia, as he now has a career 5.8 BB% and 28.0 K%. He can certainly hit 20-plus home runs given full-time duty, but the aforementioned ratios likely limit his ceiling to .275/.335/.475. Certainly not bad numbers, but also not enough to lock him in as an everyday player. Fortunately for him, I guess, Aaron Altherr is off to a 2-for-27 start that includes 11 strikeouts. One thought would be a Williams/Altherr platoon, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Should Altherr's struggles continue, Williams could certainly see more playing time, but for now, he's best left on the waiver wire in 12-team mixed leagues.

Franchy Cordero, OF, SD

Franchy has been freed!

After just 17 Triple-A at-bats rehabbing a groin injury, Cordero takes the spot of Manny Margot who replaces him on the DL with bruised ribs. Cordero was 7-for-17 with a double, homer and two steals in his Triple-A time. This came after Cordero hit .343/.465/.714 this spring and .326/.369/.603 last year in Triple-A. He has shown 20/20 ability, and despite the home park, Cordero deserves a look in all but the shallowest of leagues. He's already been installed as the leadoff man, at least for now. Once Margot returns, things will get tight, particularly once Wil Myers (arm) also returns later this month. At the least, Hunter Renfroe doesn't appear to have a future as a starter, and that leaves Jose Pirela, the current left fielder, as another guy who could eventually be vulnerable. The cream usually rises to the top, so while Myers has one spot locked down, any two of Margot, Pirela, Renfroe, and Cordero could fill the other two slots. Cordero appears to have the most intriguing tools and upside of that bunch, but we'll have to see results, and quickly. My guess is that the three outfielders that lead the team in at-bats this year are Myers, Margot and Cordero.

Jonathan Villar, 2B, MIL

It's tough to know how to project Villar this year. After a breakout 2016 that saw him hit .285/.369/.458 with 19 home runs and a whopping 61 steals, Villar slumped big-time last year, hitting just .241/.293/.372 with 11 homers and 23 steals. This year, he's hitting an interesting .342/.342/.368 with a pair of steals and one extra-base hit (double) in 38 player appearances. Villar has already sat for three of the team's 13 games this year. Eric Sogard would be his main competition for at-bats, but Sogard is just 4-for-24 and probably best-served as a multi-position utility guy, so Villar should get plenty of rope as the team looks for him to go back to the 2016 version of himself. The numbers to watch for Villar are his K% and BB%, as the former jumped from 25.6 to 30.3 percent year-over-year (2016-2017) while his BB% dipped from 11.6 to 6.9 percent. Villar is still just 27, so it's still far too early to write off 2016 as a fluke.

Joc Pederson, OF, LAD

The Dodgers are better than a 3-6 team and have relatively few holes, but left field and second base aren't exactly occupied by All-Stars. Matt Kemp just hit his first homer and is now up to .308/.379/.500, but can he really sustain that and provide passable left field defense? Early returns have Kemp at a positive 3.1 UZR/150 in left field, so perhaps the weight loss has really translated into production at once. Still, the Dodgers seem likely to consider dealing Kemp should a team be interested in picking up a decent portion of the $40-plus million Kemp is owed through next year. Given the plethora of options they would have if Kemp were gone, the better Kemp plays, the more likely it seems he could be dealt. Meanwhile, there's Pederson, who has fallen on hard times since his 2015 All-Star appearance. Pederson is just 2-for-16 this year (just one strikeout, however), and with Kike Hernandez, Kemp, Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig competing with him for at-bats on the big-league roster and Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles in Triple-A, Pederson's relevance in a Dodgers uniform might be a thing of the past. Pederson has seen his fly ball rate drop from 42.4 percent in 2015 to 34.5 percent last year, and he's not hitting the ball as hard. Combine that with a career 26.7 K% and you have a guy who's in danger his hitting his way to a Quad-A career. I just don't see any value with Pederson barring a trade/fresh start.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, NYY

If everyone were healthy in the Yankees outfield, they would likely by with a Brett Gardner/Aaron Hicks/Aaron Judge outfield with Giancarlo Stanton at DH with the occasional RF appearance. That leaves Clint Frazier (concussion), Ellsbury, and Billy McKinney as other options. So, is Ellsbury a $21 million-per-year fourth outfielder once he returns from an oblique injury as early as next week? It sure seems that way. I'll go out on a limb and say Ellsbury's 2011 will be his career year (.321/.376/.552, 32 HR, 39 SB), but he did hit a decent .264/.348/.402 last year, numbers that aren't far off from his .284/.342/.417 career slash. I could see best-case scenario being a platoon with Aaron Hicks and some occasional starts in place of Gardner, but at this point I'm probably taking the under on 400 at-bats the rest of the way barring more injuries.