NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grid, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Tyler Mahle CIN SP C 3 8 20
Brandon Finnegan CIN SP D No 0 6
Walker Buehler LAD SP B 6 13 26
Mike Foltynewicz ATL SP C 1 4 15
Adam Wainwright STL SP D No 1 10
Tyler Anderson COL SP D No 0 9
Tyler Beede SF SP D No No 4
Jeremy Hellickson WAS SP D No No 5
Caleb Smith MIA SP D No
This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grid, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (NL-Only)
Tyler Mahle CIN SP C 3 8 20
Brandon Finnegan CIN SP D No 0 6
Walker Buehler LAD SP B 6 13 26
Mike Foltynewicz ATL SP C 1 4 15
Adam Wainwright STL SP D No 1 10
Tyler Anderson COL SP D No 0 9
Tyler Beede SF SP D No No 4
Jeremy Hellickson WAS SP D No No 5
Caleb Smith MIA SP D No No 3
Trevor Richards MIA SP D No No 2
Jacob Barnes MIL RP C 9 15 29
Jeremy Jeffress MIL RP C 0 3 14
Matt Albers MIL RP D No No 6
Josh Hader MIL RP B 4 10 27
Dan Jennings MIL RP D No No 1
Josh Fields LAD RP C 2 5 17
Wilmer Font LAD RP D No No 5
Seth Lugo NYM RP C 0 2 10
Bud Norris STL RP C 0 1 8
Hansel Robles NYM RP D No No 3
Kevin Plawecki NYM C C 1 4 14
Pedro Severino WAS C D No No 1
Kolten Wong STL 2B C 2 6 19
Dansby Swanson ATL SS C 2 7 18
Jose Peraza CIN SS C 0 5 18
Derek Dietrich MIA 3B C 2 5 18
Christian Villanueva SD 3B C 3 8 21
Hunter Renfroe SD OF D 0 3 16
Franchy Cordero SD OF C 4 10 27
Preston Tucker ATL OF D No 2 12
Cameron Maybin MIA OF C 2 6 18
Braxton Lee MIA OF D No No 2

STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Mahle, Reds - I was skeptical about deploying him right away in mixed leagues, but Mahle was brilliant in his 2018 debut Tuesday against the Cubs. He was a Rembrandt around the strike zone, painting the corners with precision. Even the pitches that were called balls were right off the plate. Control was his calling card coming up through the minors, and Mahle flashed a surprising strikeout punch in his first start of the year, fanning seven in six innings thanks in part to a fastball which sat 93-95 mph. He lines up to throw in a couple of poor pitching environments in his next two starts beyond Sunday's outing (vs. STL, at MIL), but Mahle has a chance to stick in the rotation all year after throwing 164.1 innings across three stops last season. He needs to be owned everywhere. 12-team mixed: $3; 15-team mixed: $8; 12-team NL-only: $20

Brandon Finnegan, Reds - We didn't see much of Finnegan in the spring, as he left his second start with a biceps injury after recording just one out. He did end up returning before Cactus League play concluded, and Finnegan appears in line to return in a week or so, but he looked out of shape in camp. Don't forget that he went down last year after falling out a boat -- the makeup concerns are mounting for me. His injury history remains the biggest concern, and the team context works against him. Finnegan showed flashes at the end of 2016, but he will need to string together several good starts before he's back on the 12-team mixed-league radar. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $6

Walker Buehler, Dodgers - Buehler was dropped in one of my deeper mixed leagues, and I was happy to open the wallet to land him. He looked great in his limited action with the big-league team in spring training, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out seven in four innings. Meanwhile Hyun-Jin Ryu looked shaky in his 2018 debut, allowing 10 baserunners in just 3.2 frames. Buehler will be limited to around 140-150 innings this season in his second full season back from Tommy John surgery, but 110-120 of those could come in the majors. I believe in the talent, and it shouldn't be long before the opportunity to hold down a major-league rotation spot presents itself. 12-team mixed: $6; 15-team mixed: $13; 12-team NL-only: $26

Mike Foltynewicz, Braves - It's a minuscule sample (10.1 innings), but Foltynewicz is enjoying more success at home against lefties early on this season. Lefty batters pummeled Folty for a .344/.421/.492 line at SunTrust Park last season, but he has that line way down to .191/.304/.474 through two home starts in 2018. That improvement might be the result of increased faith in his changeup -- he's nearly doubled his changeup usage from last year. Previous owners of Foltynewicz know how inconsistent he's been, and more cautious owners will want to see more before investing, but this may be your last chance to get him on the cheap. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $15

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals - A hamstring issue forced Wainwright to the disabled list to start the season, and he struggled in his first back from the injury, allowing three runs over 3.2 innings with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). Wainwright's standing as the veteran of the staff figures to afford him several more chances to right the ship, but his walk rate has been steadily climbing in recent seasons and he doesn't miss enough bats to compensate. Give me Jack Flaherty over Wainwright rest of season. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $10

Tyler Anderson, Rockies - Joey Lucchesi got more buzz for his performance Thursday, but Anderson had an equally impressive showing on the other side, bouncing back from a seven-earned-run disaster in Arizona in his 2018 debut. Anderson allowed just four hits over six scoreless innings with four strikeouts against zero walks in his followup. Granted, it was against the Padres in San Diego, but Anderson had a 3.95 xFIP and 4.14 SIERA last season, and it's not ridiculous to think he could get his ERA down to the low-4.00s when it's all said and done with some HR/FB luck. It should be obvious to avoid him in Coors Field, but Anderson is on the radar as a road streaming option in deeper mixed leagues. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $9

Tyler Beede, Giants - The Giants will need a fifth starter this week, and Beede is in the mix to fill that role until Jeff Samardzija (pectoral) is back. The matchup would be at home, but expectations should be low for Beede's big-league debut. He managed just a 9.2 K-BB percentage as a 24-year-old at Triple-A Sacramento last year, and while he allowed just one hit over five innings in his 2018 debut with the affiliate, there's little to suggest anything significant has changed with his overall profile. Those in NL-only are probably better off plugging in a skilled middle reliever instead of rolling the dice with Beede. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $4

Jeremy Hellickson, Nationals - Washington has decided to push A.J. Cole back from Monday, which tells you all you need to know about his standing in the rotation. Hellickson continued to stretch out in the minors on Saturday and could supplant Cole in short order. His strikeout rate plummeted by more than two per nine last season while his HR/9 ballooned to just under 2.0, but Hellickson was a three-plus-win pitcher in 2016 (according to fWAR), and at least he should get a lot of run support pitching for the Nationals. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $5

Caleb Smith, Marlins - Fortunes changed in a hurry for Smith, as they tend to do for fringe pitchers in the big leagues. After allowing one earned run while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in his first start, Smith struggled to find the strike zone in his follow-up, allowing three runs while striking out three and walking six over three innings against Philadelphia. He enjoyed a fair amount of success with the Yankees' Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, but he was old for the level and his stuff is pedestrian. It's hard to imagine him being a net positive over the long haul. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $3

Trevor Richards, Marlins - Richards got the call to start for Miami this week, and he wasn't fooling anyone. The numbers from the farm are surprisingly good, with Richards posting FIPs below 3.00 at both High-A and Double-A last year, but his opponents' hard-hit rate was 50 percent in his debut. That's not what you want. Chase Double-A performance at your own risk. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $2

RELIEF PITCHER

Jacob Barnes, Brewers - Corey Knebel went down with a hamstring injury Thursday and will be sidelined at least six weeks, creating an extended window for someone to rack up saves in Milwaukee. Manager Craig Counsell named Barnes, Jeremy Jeffress, Matt Albers and Dan Jennings as options for the ninth, while stating explicitly that Josh Hader will remain in a multi-inning role. My money is still on Barnes even after Saturday's blown save against Chicago, as he has the velocity and swing-and-miss numbers that you typically expect from an end-gamer. Jeffress has closing experience on the team, but Barnes is the most exciting option among the arms mentioned by Counsell. 12-team mixed: $9; 15-team mixed: $15; 12-team NL-only: $29

Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers - As mentioned above, Jeffress has the most closing experience among the healthy arms remaining in the Brewers' bullpen, having saved 26 games for Milwaukee in 2016. The right-hander had some struggles both on and off the field during his time with Texas, but he seems to have a good support system in Milwaukee and seems comfortable there. The K numbers are not befitting of a closer in today's game, but Jeffress is probably worthy of a speculative pickup in 15-team leagues while we wait and see how this situation plays out. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $14

Matt Albers, Brewers - Barnes' hiccup Saturday threw a wrinkle into this mix. I would have said Albers was an extreme long shot, and I still think he's behind both Barnes and Jeffress, but he was reliable last year and it's not out of the question that he could pick occasional saves over the next two months. To date, Barnes has made five appearances, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out three in five innings. He had sub-2.00 ERAs in both 2015 and 2017, but Albers throws in the low-90s, and he's averaged just 6.5 K/9 in his career. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $6

Josh Hader, Brewers - Manager Craig Counsell made it clear that he wants Hader in a multi-inning role, so it seems he's a long shot to see regular save opportunities at any point, but Hader is one of the nastier relievers in the game and should be owned for everything else he gives you besides saves. 12-team mixed: $4; 15-team mixed: $10; 12-team NL-only: $27

Dan Jennings, Brewers - Jennings was mentioned by Counsell as a possibility, but it seems like that was just a nicety. The right-hander is off to a strong start with his new club, but he has a meager 8.2 K-BB percentage for his career, and that mark has not gotten to double digits since 2014. Barnes and Jeffress need to be owned until there is more clarity on this situation, while Albers is borderline in mixed leagues. Jennings is an NL-only consideration. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $1

Josh Fields, Dodgers - Much has been made about Kenley Jansen's diminished velocity early on this season. That dip has led to some ugly results early on: Jansen is nearly halfway to his 2017 earned run total of 10, and he's already matched his regular-season blown save total from a year ago. Jansen probably has the longest leash in baseball, but Fields seems like the next man up, and he's worthy of a speculative pickup in most leagues given the uncertainty surrounding Jansen. Home runs were a big problem for Fields last season, but he's regularly posted double-digit K/9 rates, and his BB/9 has been under 2.9 the past two years. Pedro Baez's struggles at the end of 2017 make him an unlikely option should Jansen be forced from the role. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $5; 12-team NL-only: $17

Wilmer Font, Dodgers - He got knocked around Saturday against the Giants, but if there's an arm in the Dodgers' bullpen who could rise quickly, it's Font. He had a nice year as a starter at Triple-A last season. The 27-year-old can touch the mid-90s with his rising four-seam fastball, and his curveball is a weapon as well. He hasn't missed many bats at the big-league level so far, but Font has shown improved control in recent years. Font had the highest leverage index on the team entering play Saturday, per FanGraphs. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $0; 12-team NL-only: $5

Seth Lugo, Mets - In this space last week, I discussed Robert Gsellman and his value as a multi-inning reliever. Lugo is in that same boat, having converted to the bullpen after an up-and-down 2017 -- he was pitching with a partial UCL tear in his elbow. It's early, but the stuff is playing up out of the bullpen. He's allowed just one of 10 opposing hitters to reach base while fanning four. With the quality of streaming starting pitching options being what it is, it's good to have a Lugo or two on your squad in 15-team mixers. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $9

Bud Norris, Cardinals - Greg Holland is looming as the unquestioned closer for St. Louis, but there is a small window for Norris to pitch the ninth. Norris got his first chance to do so Saturday after Dominic Leone blew a save chances earlier in the week, and he converted in impressive fashion, striking out the side. Jordan Hicks is the arm to own in this bullpen in dynasty leagues, but Norris has some short-term utility, and his experience could give the edge if anything were to happen to Holland this season. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $1; 12-team NL-only: $8

Hansel Robles, Mets - Robles failed to make the team out of camp, but he got the call this week and got off to a roaring start, striking out the side in each of his first two appearances. He hit a speedbump Saturday in the form of Bryce Harper, who took him yard, but Robles has decent stuff and could end up sticking around and chipping in double-digit holds this season. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $3

CATCHER

Kevin Plawecki, Mets - The workload behind the plate has been split fairly evenl so far, but manager Mickey Callaway has favored Plawecki slightly, giving him four starts to Travis d'Arnaud's three. D'Arnaud was drafted much higher on average throughout the spring, with Plawecki being an afterthought. Both have fared well early on: d'Arnaud has a homer while Plawecki has reached base in nearly half of his plate appearances. Plawecki makes for a solid second catcher in 15-team leagues and is still widely available on a lot of hosting sites. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $14

Pedro Severino, Nationals - With Matt Wieters (oblique) landing on the DL, Severino came up to serve in a platoon at catcher for Washington, starting against left-handed pitchers. Miguel Montero will continue to start against righties. He's gotten off to a great start and even has a splash of speed, but Severino really struggled last year, and it sounds like Wieters may end up missing the minimum. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $No; 12-team NL-only: $1

FIRST BASE

Wilmer Flores, Mets - Depending on your league settings, Flores could qualify at up to three positions -- he qualifies at both infield corners with a 20-game requirement, and he also made 12 appearances at second base last season. He's not a big on-base guy, and that dings his playing time, but Adrian Gonzalez is a flat tire -- Gonzalez has taken some walks early on, but he has just one extra-base hit in 18 at-bats. Flores is available in a lot of leagues, and while he does most of his damage against lefties, he has the power to get to 20 homers if the Mets ever gave him 500-plus plate appearances. 12-team mixed: $1; 15-team mixed: $4; 12-team NL-only: $16

SECOND BASE

Kolten Wong, Cardinals - Wong has gotten off to a miserable start, which has resulted in him being dropped in a lot of mixed leagues. It's uncertain how much of a leash he will have -- manager Mike Matheny has been impatient in the past -- but Wong has speed and showed real growth against lefties last season. He had the fourth-highest OBP among Cardinals regulars in 2017, behind Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez. It's too early to give up on Wong. We just have to hope Matheny sees it the same way. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $7; 12-team NL-only: $18

THIRD BASE

Derek Dietrich, Marlins - Dietrich has hit safely in all but one of his eight starts so far this season. The counting stats haven't been there and will continue to underwhelm, but he's batting first or second for Miami, and the gradual improvement throughout the second half last year should not be ignored. He's just two appearances away from gaining outfield eligibility in leagues that require 10 appearances in-season. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $5; 12-team NL-only: $18

Christian Villanueva, Padres - Villanueva is the latest player to emerge from basically out of nowhere to become a trendy name in fantasy, having exploded for a three-homer game earlier this week. Once a prospect in the Cubs' system, Villanueva missed all of 2016 with an ankle injury and was subsequently non-tendered by Chicago. He rebounded in 2017 with a 20-homer season for the Padres' Triple-A affiliate, and while that's not all that impressive given his age (26) and the setting (PCL), it does offer some hope that Villanueva can continue to do damage to the new baseball. He's now started five straight games, the last two in the cleanup spot. The Padres have little to lose by giving him a long look, at least in the first half, to evaluate whether he could be a part of future teams. You can no longer wait for proof. If you need some pop, this is your only chance to get Villanueva. 12-team mixed: $3; 15-team mixed: $8; 12-team NL-only: $21

SHORTSTOP

Dansby Swanson, Braves - Speaking of giving up on a player too early, Swanson quietly showed signs of growth in the second half last season, but many had already washed their hands of him after his disappointing showing before the All-Star break. Those improvements have carried over through the first week-plus of 2018, with Swanson collecting multiple hits in four of seven games. He already has a stolen base and has been batting sixth in the Braves' order. It's still not an exciting profile as there's not much power to see here, but Swanson is back on the radar as a middle-infield injury replacement. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $7; 12-team NL-only: $19

Jose Peraza, Reds - If the Peraza owner in your league already cut bait, I can't blame them. He did collect a couple hits Saturday, but he entered that game with a 7.1 percent line-drive rate and 14.3 percent hard-hit rate. He had already experienced a precipitous drop in line-drive rate from 2016 to 2017, and he doesn't get on base or hit for power. The Reds have already turned to Cliff Pennington once, and Peraza isn't running right now. Yes, speed is hard to find, but this is not a skill set worth paying a premium for. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $5; 12-team NL-only: $18

OUTFIELD

Hunter Renfroe, Padres - Wil Myers (arm) is expected to return after the 10-day minimum, but Renfroe should get run in the meantime. I'm not a fan of the skill set -- he can't hit right-handers, and he's a negative in the outfield. He was showing some signs of improvement early on, striking out just three times in his first six games, but Renfroe has slipped back into some bad habits in recent days (2-for-13 with three strikeouts). Deploy him at your own risk -- know that you're risking severe damage to your batting average by chasing his power. 12-team mixed: $0; 15-team mixed: $3; 12-team NL-only: $16

Franchy Cordero, Padres - A roster favorite late into the spring, Cordero ended up hitting the DL to begin the season due to a groin injury. He began his rehab assignment Friday, and manager Andy Green was clear that he's eager to get Cordero's lefty bat in the lineup. "We're a righty-dominant outfield and to have a left-handed bat you could throw in there against right-handed pitching, it'd be very helpful right now, " Green told MLB.com. "He's a guy we thought was going to be a big part of this when spring started," the skipper added. "He showed that through spring training. If he shows he's healthy, shows he's flying around the field, he's somebody I'd expect to see." There is a lot of swing and miss in Cordero's game, but he was showing more patience in the Dominican Winter League en route to Rookie of the Year and MVP honors. He posted impressive sprint speed and hard-hit marks in his limited sample last year, with the former suggesting he could be a big positive in left field. 12-team mixed: $4; 15-team mixed: $10; 12-team NL-only: $27

Preston Tucker, Braves - Tucker came out of the gates hot with hits in seven consecutive games to begin the campaign, including two homers. Ronald Acuna looms, but Nick Markakis is in the final year of his contract, and it's possible the team will give Tucker an extended opportunity to prove his worth. Tucker was once something of a prospect, and he had 13 homers in just 300 at-bats with Houston in 2015. By no means is he a must-own in mixed leagues, but Tucker has appeal as a low-cost fill-in for those in need of an outfield replacement. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: $2; 12-team NL-only: $12

Cameron Maybin, Marlins - Seeing as Maybin wasn't starting to begin the season, many owners in shallower leagues cut bait, including yours truly. However, with Garrett Cooper going to the DL with a wrist injury, near-everyday playing time has opened up. Maybin is an injury risk, and he's not going to hit for a high average or much power, but he can chip in some steals, and that alone will likely make him pretty popular in leagues where he's available. 12-team mixed: $2; 15-team mixed: $6; 12-team NL-only: $18

Braxton Lee, Marlins - Lee was called up in a corresponding move with Cooper landing on the DL, but he's hardly seen the field. Even in NL-only, there's little reason to consider picking up Lee. He's shown a decent batting eye in the minors and has some speed, but there is a total absence of power here and the hit tool is nothing to write home about. 12-team mixed: No; 15-team mixed: No; 12-team NL-only: $2

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Clay Link
Clay Link is the MLB Editor at RotoWire. Clay won the overall championship in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational and finished top 10 in the NFBC Online Championship in 2018. He can be heard on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, MLB Network Radio and twice a week on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast during baseball season.
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