MLB Barometer: Eyes on the Prize

There are a half dozen truly great weekends built in to my annual work travel schedule. The NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas is always near the top of the list, as it's an opportunity to compete with the top fantasy baseball players in the world while getting a shot at a $125,000 top prize.

The Main Event is a 15-team mixed league draft, and one of my favorite aspects of all NFBC (and NFFC) drafts is the Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) system used to establish the draft order. Each owner ranks their preferred position, and the computer randomly draws owners' names one-by-one to award them their top available selection. As RotoWire colleagues Scott Jenstad and Vlad Sedler have preached over the years, determining where you want to be in the order requires looking beyond the first two rounds to find the drops in early round talent.

This year, my greatest debate was whether I preferred the No. 3 overall selection or the No. 14 overall selection as the third-best option behind the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks. After careful consideration, No. 3 three ended up as my third choice, and I was awarded that position after being the fifth name drawn by the computer.

On most boards, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve are the first two players taken, leaving the owner in the third position with three pretty unique starting points. There were four players I considered while preparing for the draft with my co-owner, RotoWire COO Tim Schuler:

Trea Turner
Nolan Arenado
Giancarlo Stanton
Clayton Kershaw

(I see building around Arenado and Stanton as similar, since both are power-heavy bats with minimal steals contributions.)

A few unique variables are created because owners are not allowed to trade in NFBC leagues, in addition to the overall prize component deterring punting a category.

Without those variables, it's very easy to lock in on Stanton or Kershaw due to the heightened value of their projections compared to the alternatives. In most leagues, a Stanton foundation that doesn't end up with enough steals can acquire those bags using an excess of power or pitching to trade from an area of strength.

My early round planning stretched through the first five rounds, as I attempted to figure out the ideal combinations with Picks 3, 28, 33, 58 and 63.

An ideal Round 2 target for a Stanton owner is Dee Gordon, whose ADP in the Main Event is 28th overall. Combined, you could have the equivalent of two 30-30 players with your first two picks, which is an excellent start. The problem is that Gordon pairs perfectly with Arenado for the exact same reason, and the Arenado owner would have the inside track to Gordon if he wanted it, leaving you as the Stanton owner to decide if you want to push up Starling Marte (ADP of 46 in the Main Event leagues), Byron Buxton (ADP 51) or Billy Hamilton (ADP 68). The alternative is to attempt to get a lot of bags scattered across your roster throughout the draft.

In short, those combos weren't as desirable as the ones I thought I could build around Turner, as there are seemingly endless ways to find the missing homers and RBI throughout the draft, which includes veering toward starting pitchers if desired with two of the next four picks, or targeting an elite closer if things broke the right way.

As the drafts started Saturday morning, Trout was snapped up by all of the owners in the first seat. Shawn Childs, who had the second pick, jokingly asked which player Shoe and I wanted with the third pick before taking Turner at No. 2.

Expect the unexpected.

Jose Altuve was available at three.

Unprecedented? Not quite. Uncommon? Absolutely.

Fortunately, I had at least considered the possibility of Kershaw or Stanton going second overall, and had already decided that I was content to take Altuve for many of the same reasons that I preferred Turner to the alternatives.

Projection models are very bearish on Altuve, relatively speaking. I'm not bearish on him at all. I've never seen a player like Altuve before, and I'm receptive to the idea that he has a very unique skill set that enables him to consistently beat the his projection-based limitations.

With Altuve, steals would need to be addressed sooner than if I had landed Turner, but Altuve's batting average affords a lot of leeway when targeting cheap sources of power in the back half of drafts. The ability to tap into some of the greater power sources with extreme batting average downside made it much easier to get the starting pitchers I wanted at the 2-3 and 4-5 turns, and to justify paying up for higher end closers.

The first five rounds left Shoe and I with this core:

1.3 Jose Altuve
2.13 Carlos Carrasco
3.3 Jacob deGrom
4.13 Aroldis Chapman
5.3 Nelson Cruz

The owners who opted to build around Turner, Stanton, Arenado and Kershaw started with these five-player combos:

1.2. Trea Turner
2.14 Anthony Rizzo
3.2 Luis Severino
4.14 Edwin Encarnacion
5.2 James Paxton

1.4 Nolan Arenado
2.12 Dee Gordon
3.4 Kenley Jansen
4.12 Rhys Hoskins
5.4 Jonathan Schoop

1.5 Giancarlo Stanton
2.11 Cody Bellinger
3.5 Brian Dozier
4.11 Whit Merrifield
5.5 Justin Upton

1.6 Clayton Kershaw
2.10 Aaron Judge
3.6 George Springer
4.10 Dallas Keuchel
5.6 Khris Davis

Although drafts don't have complete flexibility like auctions, there is flexibility in how you choose to build the foundation of your team, as those early-round choices will shape the categories you will most aggressively pursue in the rounds that follow, If your strength is finding plenty of speed in the middle and late rounds, the Kershaw core above is a great way to go. If you're confident you can find plenty of quality arms in the middle rounds, the Stanton quintet might be your preferred approach early.

Even with Altuve in the first round, it feels like the initial roster is a little bit light on bags, unless new Red Sox manager Alex Cora is willing to give Jackie Bradley Jr. more green lights, and without the projected 25-plus from Cameron Maybin as the Marlins try to find ways to put runs on the board.

For those interested in how it came together, here's the final roster:

The final weekend of drafts was littered with an abundance of injury news, which started with Madison Bumgarner's fractured pinky Friday. Additionally, teams began paring down their rosters for Opening Day, and one, somewhat surprisingly agreed to a multi-year contract with a top prospect prior to his MLB debut.

RISERS

Scott Kingery, 2B, PHI - The Phillies inked Kingery to a six-year deal Sunday, with club options for an additional three years, while also revealing that he would be a part of the team's Opening Day roster. Without much to prove at Triple-A, the decision certainly makes sense, though I expected Kingery to get a month in the minors before he'd be summoned to take on a super utility role. In his age-23 season, Kingery narrowly missed a combined 30-30 campaign while splitting time between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Look for more speed than power from Kingery for now (rough projection: .265, 12-15 HR, 22-25 SB), as his slugging percentage dropped from .608 to .449 with the move up to Triple-A last season, but he appears to be relevant even in 10-team mixed leagues now that he's not stuck at Lehigh Valley. New manager Gabe Kapler suggested Kingery could see time at six defensive positions, with second, short, third and the three outfield spots being options. Ultimately, Kingery's offensive output will determine how many starts he gets each week, but it's not difficult to envision five or six starts per week since Cesar Hernandez, J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera can all justifiably sit a game out each week (they only have five spots as a group of six players with Rhys Hoskins seemingly locked in to play left).

C.J. Cron, 1B, TAM - In leagues that drafted early, Cron is widely available as an early pickup. For owners who are looking to replace Greg Bird to begin the season, Cron may be one of the best options on the wire, as the Rays intend to give him a chance to play every day, while affording him an opportunity to hit in the heart of the order. Neither of those things were going to happen in Anaheim, so the value shift here is significant, and it appears as though the ownership rate hasn't caught up yet. Last season, Cron hit the ball in the air more than ever (44.7 FB%), and his second half splits (most notably, his 123 wRC+) are encouraging. He should be a steady option to fill a corner spot in 12-team mixers and up.

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY - The final weekend of spring training was overflowing with injury news, and while Madison Bumgarner owners are justifiably disappointed that he suffered a broken pinkie as the result of a comebacker in Friday's Cactus League game, the report that Greg Bird is again dealing with a foot injury is troubling. He will have surgery to remove a small broken spur on the outside of his right ankle, the same ankle that cost him a significant portion of last season. He is expected to miss six to eight weeks. Neil Walker is expected to slide over to play first base when the Yankees face a right-handed starter, while Tyler Austin likely will work on the small side of a platoon against southpaws. The immediate plans for Torres aren't changed, but perhaps something resembling the expected Ronald Acuna treatment (a callup around April 13) is now possible. Tyler Wade, who is an interesting deep-league pickups for cheap speed, may end up in the lineup regularly at the keystone when Walker is playing first base against righties to begin the year.

Gerardo Parra, OF, COL - I'm not going to mince words. Parra shouldn't hold the starting left field job over David Dahl for very long, but he can start ahead of Raimel Tapia as long as Dahl is at Triple-A Albuquerque. Until Dahl takes the job away, Parra can be streamed as a fifth outfielder when the Rockies are at home, where he's posted an OPS above .800 in each of his first two seasons with the Rockies. Having a cheap fallback plan that you can stomach in the lineup for a week is helpful, especially in leagues that require FAAB. As for Dahl, I'm just hoping he pays off as an early season bench stash before reserve slot limitations force a tough decision to potentially drop him in mixers in the weeks ahead.

Jack Flaherty, SP, STL - The Cardinals will use Flaherty in the rotation to begin the season with Adam Wainwright opening the year on the 10-day DL. No projection system I've seen projects Flaherty to finish 2018 with an ERA less than 4.00, but he has the polish and arsenal necessary to stick in the rotation as a potential No. 4 starter in St. Louis this season. It might be foolish to assume that Flaherty will simply return to Memphis once Wainwright returns from his hamstring injury. The struggles he experienced with the Cardinals in September were founded on shaky command, which has rarely been an issue for him during his ascent through the minors.

Yonny Chirinos, SP, TAM - The Rays placed Chirinos on their Opening Day roster, and while they are still insistent upon having a four-man rotation, at least to begin the season, Chirinos is the best speculative add as the next man in the mix if one of the four starters ahead of him goes down with an injury, or if the Rays decide that they don't want to pile a lot of innings on their bullpen every fifth day. Chirinos has excellent command and control, he mixes four pitches effectively, and while he's unlikely to be an above average source of strikeouts, he shouldn't have any workload restrictions this season if the Rays eventually give him a rotation spot to call his own. Until then, he may prove useful as a ninth pitcher in lineups as a high-volume reliever.

FALLERS

Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS - Murphy fell to Pick 152 of my NFBC Main Event draft on Saturday. Part of the reason I didn't end up with him was that he didn't fit particularly well on a roster that had Altuve locked in at second and a need to rally in power throughout the early rounds. There was a brief period of optimism a few weeks back, during which Nats general manager Mike Rizzo suggested that Murphy might be ready for Opening Day. While he's likely hitting the 10-day DL to begin the season, Murphy has the ability to finish as a top-75 player even if he misses a couple weeks to begin the season. If the discount in the final days of draft season remains this steep, it's risk worth taking.

Danny Duffy, SP, KC - Duffy left his final spring start Saturday after feeling a pop in his shoulder, but he was able to play long toss Sunday without incident, and he's on track to make his Opening Day start against the White Sox. An already lengthy track record of arm injuries (including 2012 Tommy John, and most recently, the removal of loose bodies from his elbow in October), is enough to steer me away from him as an SP3-SP4 type in the Pick 150-200 range. Duffy's inability to stay healthy is unfortunate, as he's emerged to be a steady source of ratios with three-year averages that include a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Austin Barnes, C, LAD - The Dodgers leaned more heavily on Yasmani Grandal than they did on Barnes in games this spring, in the wake of a mid-February report that suggested Grandal was going to get the bulk of the starts behind the plate against righties this season. As draft season began, I was convinced that the team's frequent use of Barnes over Grandal in September and October was a sign of things to come. As a result, I was overaggressive with my projection and ranking of Barnes, but there may be a path for both catchers to end up in the lineup together with Justin Turner's wrist injury pushing Logan Forsythe into regular duty at third base, leaving second base to Barnes on occasion. Even though the playing time balance appears to be different than I expected, Barnes is still a viable second catcher in leagues that require two and have 10-or-more teams.

Adalberto Mondesi, 2B, KC - A shoulder impingement significantly limited Mondesi this spring, but he finally returned to the field Saturday against the Diamondbacks. The Royals' short-term plans for him are not immediately clear, but Mondesi has shown a propensity for racking up steals in his stretches with the Royals over the last two seasons, despite being overmatched by big-league pitching. Consider that he's 14-for-17 on the basepaths with little more than 200 plate appearances under his belt, while hitting .181/.226/.271. Mondesi has a better much path to a regular role if he can unseat Alcides Escobar at shortstop, with Whit Merrifield likely entrenched at second base.

Joakim Soria, RP, CHW - The White Sox announced their plan to split save chances between Soria and Nate Jones, chipping away at the initial value of both players in the process. While that arrangement could shift in the direction of either reliever as a preferred ninth-inning option for manager Rick Renteria, Soria's ratios and strikeout rate leave something to be desired as a staff filler. Jones' contract might also work against Soria, as the White Sox have affordable team options for 2019 and 2020 along with a mutual option for 2021, so there is no incentive to keep Jones away from saves chances due to the possibility of his salary jumping in the arbitration process.

Brad Brach, RP, BAL - Unimpressed by the White Sox's two-man tandem to handle save chances, the Orioles revealed a plan to use Brach, Mychal Givens and Darren O'Day to close games in the absence of Zach Britton. Since Britton is on the 60-day DL, he'll miss at least the first two months of the season. Additionally, Britton is a potential trade target for contending clubs if the Orioles are unable to hang around in the American League wild card picture come mid-summer. Brach's swinging-strike rate dipped to a three-year low last season (12.2 percent), and not surprisingly, his strikeout rate tumbled along with it (9.3 K/9, 25.5 K%). Givens and O'Day showed better skills than Brach last season, and the only thing hindering Givens might be arbitration-driven cost concerns if he's piling up saves. Amazingly, the trio was split neutral last season, making it even more difficult to read the tea leaves and figure out how exactly manager Buck Showalter will distribute save chances. Givens looks like the best option in deep keeper leagues, but don't be surprised if a 50-50 split between Brach and O'Day gets the Orioles through the first two months before Britton returns to take back the job for June and July.

Editor's Note: Derek won't be available until Thursday to reply to questions, but fire away in the comments anyway and he'll tackle them then.