Regan's Rumblings: Hunting for Cheap Speed & Saves

In a move that everyone saw coming, the Braves this week sent OF Ronald Acuna to Triple-A despite Acuna batting .432/.519/.727 with four homers and four stolen bases in 44 spring at-bats. Given that the Braves Opening Day corner outfielders are likely Preston Tucker (a .219/.274/.403 career hitter) and the punchless Nick Markakis, this is obviously a service time manipulation move. By keeping Acuna in the minors for about two weeks, the Braves will control his rights through 2024 as opposed to 2023. From a pure business standpoint, it's obviously the right move for the Braves, but it would be nice if MLB and the Player's Union can address this issue sooner rather than later. Anyway …

Two questions we see here at RotoWire a lot through the Ask-the-Expert queue are:

Who can give me some cheap speed late in my draft?

Which closers-in-waiting could take over and get me some saves?

Let's take a look at 10 such players in each category.

CHEAP SPEED

Mallex Smith, OF, TB

Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he returned Tuesday to play in a minor league game, stealing a base and bunting for a base hit. Safe to say that hamstring is just fine. Smith is batting .304/.333/.348 this spring, but his closest competitor for at-bats, Denard Span, is batting .350/.400/.525, so playing time is far from guaranteed and it won't be a platoon, as both bat left-handed. Smith has hit a modest .235/.323/.360 in 497 big league PA, but if he can win close to everyday playing time, Smith's 80-grade speed gives him a chance at 35-40 steals.

Chris Owings, UT, ARI

Owings qualifies at second base, shortstop and the outfield in most leagues, and though his offensive profile limits him to deeper formats, he's expected to get 300-plus PA as a super-utility guy. Given that Arizona's middle infield consists of less-than-elite options Ketel Marte (who I actually like) and Nick Ahmed (not so much), Owings could find his way into more playing time than expected. He did hit a career-high 12 homers in just 386 PA last year and has swiped as many as 21 bases, and with his positional flexibility, he carries some value in the right formats.

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, KC

The knock on Mondesi is his lack of plate discipline (career 4.3 BB%), so instead of playing him and letting him develop, the Royals sign a guy nine years older with a career 3.9 BB% in Alcides Escobar. Mondesi is batting .231/.231/.538 this spring, so he's showing plenty of power, but the 8:0 K:BB in 26 PA isn't exactly surprising. He may not be fully developed, but as a 21-year-old in Triple-A last season, Mondesi hit .305/.340/.539 with 13 homers and 21 stolen bases. If given a chance, he could break out.

Ender Inciarte, OF, ATL

There doesn't seem to be much in the way of breakout potential with Inciarte, but he should still be good for 10 homers and 20 steals to go with close to a .300 BA. His 121 ADP pegs him as an early 13th round pick, so if at that point in your draft you're looking for predictability and solid (but not spectacular) production across the board, this is your guy. Inciarte won't be impacted by Ronald Acuna's impeding arrival, as the uber-prospect is expected to slot in as the left fielder, squeezing out either Preston Tucker or Nick Markakis.

Delino DeShields Jr., OF, TEX

DeShields has accumulated 62 stolen bases in the equivalent of two full seasons, so any predictions of his 2018 output should start at 30 bags. What is his ceiling? Well, given he's already been anointed as the team's leadoff hitter and everyday center fielder, DeShields could be in line for 40-plus if he meets or exceeds last year's .269/.347/.367 line. He's hitting a solid .340/.426/.489 this spring. DeShields sports a 22.1 percent career hard-hit rate, which is among the lowest in the league (J.D. Martinez compiled a league-high 49 percent in 2017), so that's going to impact his batting average, but he does have a good eye (10.0 BB% in 2017), so if he can hit .270/.350/.370 or so this year, that should easily be enough to protect his job and allow him to pile up the steals.

Michael Taylor, OF, WAS

.279, .282, .278, .320. That's the trend of Taylor's OBP from 2014-2017, so he's trending in the right direction headed into his age-27 season. Taylor notched career highs last year in home runs (19) and stolen bases (17), marks that could easily rise to the 20/20 range given adequate playing time this season. He'll need to get off to a good start given that top prospect Victor Robles is lurking in Triple-A, but if Taylor is hitting, the playing time should be there, even if it is with a different organization. Taylor's career 31.8 K% could obviously use some improvement, but even at a 30 percent rate, he should still provide positive return on his 225 ADP.

Orlando Arcia, SS, MIL

It's highly unlikely that Arcia will ever reach the pantheon of great young shortstops consisting of the likes of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor, but if you miss out on those players, grabbing a 23-year-old on the upswing of his development isn't a bad Plan B. Arcia hit a solid .277/.324/.407 last year with 15 homers and 14 stolen bases. Unfortunately, it appears he will be hitting near the bottom of the order, impacting his at-bats and stolen base opportunities, but given his youth, I'd pay the 183 ADP all day. After all, this was a guy who hit .307/.347/.453 as a 20-year-old in Double-A.

Adam Engel, OF, CHW

Charlie Tilson is out of the picture, but Engel is still battling the likes of Leury Garcia, Ryan Cordell and Nicky Delmonico for left and center field alongside RF Avisail Garcia. Engel is making a good case this spring, batting .356/.420/.667 with four home runs and a stolen base. Cordell and Garcia are also hitting well, so this could come down to the final week. Engel has swiped as many as 65 bases in a minor league season, so that's why he's on this list. A big strike against him is that he looked completely overmatched in 336 MLB PA last year, batting a putrid .166/.235/.282 with a 34.8 K%. In reality, he hasn't fared all that well above A-ball, but if he has made strides this spring and wins a job, he could provide some (very) cheap speed.

Dustin Fowler, OF, OAK

Fowler was the favorite for the Opening Day CF job heading into camp, and while he's hitting just .171/.211/.229 in 38 PA, we assume that's still the case. Fowler might certainly be rusty after missing the second half of 2017 due to an ugly knee injury. Fowler for his part says he feels good, and he has stolen three bases, but a week or so of good at-bats will do a lot for his chances. Fowler would seem to be a candidate to lead off, though that could go to Marcus Semien initially despite Semien's .307 career OBP. Fowler would have a good shot at 25 steals if he leads off.

Jose Peraza, SS, CIN

Peraza doesn't turn 24 until the end of April, but despite his youth, he seems at a bit of a crossroads. There are legitimate questions as to his ability to handle full-time duties at this level. After batting .324/.352/.411 in 256 PA in 2016, Peraza's first full year didn't go nearly as well, as in 518 PA, he hit just .259/.297/.324. Yes, he swiped 23 bases, but his BABIP dropped from .361 to .293 and he walked in just 3.9 percent of his plate appearances. Peraza has always posted low walk rates, so he's going to need to hit .300-plus to have value given he also doesn't hit for power. Peraza is hitting .333 this spring, but also has just one walk in 47 plate appearances.

CLOSERS-IN-WAITING

A.J. Minter, ATL

One of my favorite up-and-coming relievers, Minter is just 6-foot, but his electric left arm averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball last year when he posted an elite 26:2 K:BB in 15 innings for the Braves. This spring he's yet to allow a run in 6.1 innings with a 9:1 K:BB. Arodys Vizcaino is the undisputed closer, but he's fanned just two batters in seven innings this spring and is no lock to hold the job all year.

Joe Jimenez, DET

After putting up a 12.32 ERA in 24 appearances for the Tigers last year, Jimenez lost weight and worked on his delivery over winter. So far so good for the most part given his 3.38 ERA and 13:5 K:BB in eight inning this spring. Jimenez pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and he's accumulated 56 career minor league saves, so there's some closer-of-the-future potential with the 23-year-old. Shane Greene is the closer for now, but he's a solid trade candidate for a rebuilding Tigers team, and that could open things for Jimenez.

Blake Parker, LAA

Cam Bedrosian appears to have the Angels' closer job locked down, but Bedrosian has a 1.42 career WHIP and has struggled to stay healthy at times. Parker, meanwhile, put up a 2.54 ERA, 11.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 last year after adding 1.4 mph to his fastball. He also held hitters to a .155 BA. That said, his spring has been very ugly – 6.2 IP, 17 H, 12 ER, but a solid 8:2 K:BB. With no reports of any physical issues, we'll give him a pass on that line and still consider him a threat to lead the team in saves this year.

Dominic Leone, STL

An oblique injury will result in anointed closer Luke Gregerson missing approximately the first two weeks, and it appears Leone is next man up. Leone had an excellent year for Toronto in 2017, posting a 2.56 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. For a guy who put up a 6.33 ERA in 25 games for Arizona the previous year, this was completely unexpected. Now he's allowed just one run in seven innings this spring with a 10:4 K:BB. Leone has struggled some with walks, so keep an eye on his BB/9, but while he may just be filling in for Gregerson, he could win the job outright with a good start. After all, while Gregerson has had some good seasons as a setup man, his ERA ballooned to 4.57 last year, as a sharp decline in his GB/FB ratio led to a bloated 1.9 HR/9. Leone, meanwhile, looks to be a good "get" in the Randal Grichuk deal.

Tim Lincecum, TEX

RotoWire ranks Rangers assumed closer Alex Claudio 30th among relievers, so that says a bit about what we think of his chances at leading the team in saves. Other candidates include Keone Kela, Jake Diekman and, yes, Tim Lincecum, who is much more fun to write about. Lincecum has been dealing with the death of his brother in the last month, putting his Opening Day availability in doubt, so look for Claudio to be the closer initially with Kela next man up given his 11.1 career K/9. Lincecum will probably pitch in middle relief initially, but if reports of his 93 mph showcase velocity are in fact accurate, he could find himself in the mix for saves at some point this season.

Kyle Barraclough, MIA

Brad Ziegler will close to start the season, but Barraclough should be nipping at his heels in no time. Manager Don Mattingly must have learned something from Andrew Friedman in his time in Los Angeles, as Mattingly recently said he prefers to use him in high-leverage situations earlier in the game. Progressive thinking, indeed. Barraclough notched 22 holds last year and has an impressive 12.1 career K/9, but the big issue is his 5.5 BB/9. Erratic closer certainly have value, but we'd like to see that number closer to 4.0 this year, if not better. Barraclough has allowed just one hit in five scoreless innings with a 6:1 K:BB this spring, so perhaps he's making progress with his control already.

Carl Edwards Jr., CHC

Brandon Morrow is obviously the closer, but despite a healthy 2017, Morrow has averaged just 31.5 innings a season since 2013. Morrow may have had the largest fastball velocity spike last year (from 94.2 mph to 97.7 mph on average), but he was ridden hard in the playoffs, pitching in 14 of the Dodgers' 16 games, ultimately melting down in Game 5 of the World Series. Anyway, Edwards would be next man up should Morrow falter or get hurt. Last season, Edwards posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, elite 12.8 K/9 and a not-so-elite 5.2 BB/9. Edwards has had control issues, so this is worth watching. He's been great this spring with an 8:0 K:BB in six innings, and in deeper leagues, while he won't be racking up saves initially, he does have 100-strikeout potential, a mark reached by just nine relievers in 2017.

Addison Reed, MIN

Reed has pitched at least 55 games in each of his six full seasons, so there's a lot of value just in his being able to avoid the disabled list. Beyond that, Reed has put up 9-plus K/9 and sub-2.0 BB/9 rates in each of the last two seasons despite a fastball that averages little more than 92 mph. Reed is clearly a better reliever than the erratic Fernando Rodney, so it would surprise no one if Reed led this team in saves handily. If you're drafting Rodney in a deeper format, Reed is the obvious handcuff.

Emilio Pagan, OAK

A late-bloomer considering he turns 27 in May, Pagan posted an impressive 56:8 K:BB in 50.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA in the big leagues last season. A 56.9 percent flyball rate (that's high) resulted in seven home runs allowed, so it would certainly help if he worked down in the zone a bit more often. We are projecting Pagan for 100 strikeouts, so he has value, and let's just say that Blake Treinen, the current closer, hasn't always been reliable. Treinen had a 5.73 ERA through July 7 with the Nationals, was traded to Oakland and finished with a 2.13 ERA with the A's. Can he be counted on to continue that pace? Not sure, so I'm certainly eyeing Pagan in deeper formats.

Brandon Maurer, KC

Why is a guy with a 6.52 ERA last year on this list? Simple – potential opportunity. Maurer projects as second on the Royals' closer depth chart behind Kelvin Herrera, who had a 4.25 ERA last year and who sports a 1.57 WHIP this spring. Maurer seemed a bit unlucky last year given his solid ratios (9.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9) and, indeed, his FIP was 3.96 and BABIP was .375. This spring the results have been mixed, as though Maurer has a 1.89 ERA, his WHIP is 2.25 and in 5.1 innings, Maurer's K:BB is just 4:3. If Maurer can limit the long balls, this mid-to-upper-90s stuff could play well as a closer should Herrera falter.