FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

PITCHER:

Danny Duffy, KAN vs. DET ($8,300): The Tigers have a 24.1 percent strikeout rate and .258 wOBA versus southpaws on the road in September, while Duffy has a 2.45 ERA, .209 BAA and .238 wOBA allowed in his two starts since returning from a knee injury. He's also posted a 2-0 record against the Tigers this season and a 3.12 ERA and .285 wOBA allowed over 57.2 home innings.

CATCHER:

Robinson Chirinos, TEX vs. OAK ($2,500): Chirinos offers some cheap right-handed exposure to A's southpaw Sean Manaea, who's allowed a .367 wOBA (including 11 homers) and 37.3 percent hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road. Chirinos sports a .464 wOBA against left-handed pitching that rises to .511 when facing that handedness at Globe Life Park. He also boasts a 29.4 percent HR/FB rate and 44.4 percent hard-contact rate versus lefties at home, as well as a .459 wOBA versus the four-seam fastball that Manaea allows a .357 wOBA on when throwing. A's relievers also have a 5.84 ERA and .396 wOBA allowed (including seven homers) to righty bats on the road in September.

FIRST BASE:

Adam Lind, WAS vs. PIT ($3,100): Pirates starter Ivan Nova's struggles versus lefty bats on the road include a .369 wOBA (including 12 homers), 4.89 xFIP and 20.0 percent HR/FB rate allowed, and he's surrendered a 35.0 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness overall. Lind has hit all 14 homers this season off right-handed pitchers and owns a .410 wOBA, .237 ISO and 39.3 percent hard-contact rate versus that handedness at home, while also posting a .518 wOBA against Nova's trademark sinker. Moreover, Pirates relievers have a 6.62 ERA and have allowed a .358 wOBA (including four homers) to lefty bats on the road in the last month.

SECOND BASE

Brandon Phillips, LAA at CWS ($3,300): White Sox starter Dylan Covey has yielded a .448 wOBA (including 10 homers), 2.78 HR/9, 6.48 xFIP and 40.9 percent hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters, and a .375 wOBA when throwing his trademark sinker, a pitch that Phillips boasts a .442 wOBA against. Phillips has hit 11 of his 13 homers on the season off righties and sports a .320 wOBA versus that handedness overall. White Sox relievers also have a 5.76 ERA and have allowed a .333 wOBA (including three homers) to right-handed hitters at home in September.

THIRD BASE:

Mike Moustakas, KC vs. DET ($2,700): Moustakas is in play despite the lefty-on-lefty matchup against Tigers starter Daniel Norris, who's allowed a .398 wOBA (including six homers) and 38.4 percent hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. While a lot of those struggles have come at home, it's notable that Norris has been bailed out against lefty bats on the road by an unsustainable .161 BABIP over a modest sample. Meanwhile Moustakas owns a .324 wOBA (including nine homers) and .203 ISO against southpaws, and a .347 wOBA versus the four-seam fastball, a pitch that Norris is allowing a .422 wOBA on.

SHORTSTOP:

Alcides Escobar, KAN vs. DET ($3,000): Norris has had his share of struggles versus righty bats as well, allowing a .354 wOBA, 4.95 xFIP and 42.9 percent hard-contact rate. Escobar has been a much better hitter in the second half and is sporting a .396 wOBA and .258 ISO over 92 September plate appearances, numbers partly comprised of 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, two triples, three homers). Tigers relievers also have an AL-high 7.63 ERA and .466 wOBA allowed to righty bats on the road in September.

OUTFIELD:

Howie Kendrick, WAS vs. PIT ($2,800): While Pirates starter Ivan Nova hasn't been as vulnerable to right-handed hitters, he's still allowing a .323 wOBA (including 10 homers) and 36.8 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness on the road. Furthermore, he's allowing a .360 wOBA and 41.4 percent hard-contact rate to righty bats overall since the All-Star break, while Kendrick boasts a .351 wOBA versus right-handed pitching and a .364 wOBA versus Nova's trademark sinker.

Andrew McCutchen, PIT at WAS ($3,300): McCutchen's body of work versus righties includes a .334 wOBA and 33.3 percent hard-contact rate, and he boasts a .363 wOBA over 98 September plate appearances, a number significantly boosted by his two-homer, eight-RBI explosion on Tuesday that netted 73.8 fantasy points. Nationals starter Edwin Jackson has allowed a .415 wOBA (including 14 homers), 6.26 xFIP, 22.6 percent HR/FB rate and 32.3 percent hard-contact rate to righty bats, and he has a 12.38 ERA and has allowed a .494 wOBA (including nine homers) in the 16 innings encompassing his last four starts. McCutchen also owns a .416 wOBA versus the four-seam fastball, a pitch that Jackson allows a .350 wOBA on.

Matt Joyce, OAK at TEX ($2,900): Rangers starter Miguel Gonzalez was pounded for seven earned runs over 2.1 innings by the Mariners in his only Globe Life Park start since arriving in Texas, and he's allowing a .364 wOBA (including 11 homers), 5.82 xFIP and 34.3 percent hard-contact rate to lefty bats overall. Joyce has hit all but one of his 24 homers off righties and boasts a .358 wOBA and .254 ISO versus that handedness. Joyce's .398 wOBA versus the four-seam fastball also matches up nicely with the .402 wOBA that Gonzalez allows when throwing it, while Rangers relievers have an 8.38 ERA and have allowed a .371 wOBA to lefty bats at home in September.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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