Regan's Rumblings: 2017 Overdrafts

In last week's piece, I covered off a handful of players who greatly outperformed their pre-season ADP (average draft position). Projections aren't exactly a science, so though we try and make use of all available quantitative and qualitative factors, no one is perfect, including us. This week I will take a similar approach with players who haven't come close to living up to their ADP. I can't cover all of them, so if you want a quick comment about someone not on the list, please comment in the notes below.

How many of these guys did you draft?

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (#15)

I guess given he turned 34 in April, that Cabrera had some element of risk attached to his name, but I sure didn't see this drop-off coming. A year after batting .316/.393/.563 with 38 home runs and 108 RBI, Cabrera this year sits at .248/.333/.398 with 14 homers. Back and hip injuries have limited him to 116 games, and he's in the midst of a six-game suspension for the brawl with the Rangers on August 24. Some startling numbers include a .248 batting average that is 69 points below his .317 career mark, a .150 ISO (87 points below his career rate), and a 20.7% K% for a guy who's never been above 19% in a season. I guess on the plus side, that's still a good rate for a power hitter, and Cabrera's BB% remains relatively strong at 10.9%. His hard hit rate remains elite at 44.1% and he's hitting his normal mix of flyballs and groundballs, so no real insight there. His BABIP sits at a career-low .290 versus a .345 career mark, so there's probably an element of bad luck here mixed with the effects of various injuries. It's probably time to transition Cabrera to a full-time DH role, perhaps in a city other than Detroit (Boston?), but the $184 million Cabrera is owed after this season may very well make him an unmovable piece. I do think he'll be much better next year, particularly if he can address the nagging injuries.

Trevor Story, SS, COL (#20)

Outside of guys that missed significant time due to injuries, Story has to be a front-runner for biggest fantasy bust of 2017. A year removed from a .272/.341/.567 line with 27 homers in just 97 games, Story has been awful this year, batting just .225/.303/.418 with 18 homers in 120 games. Maybe we should have seen this coming given Story struck out in 31.3% of his 2016 plate appearances, a mark that's risen to 36% this year. Last year's 23.7% HR/FB rate proved unsustainable, dropping to 15.3% this year and his hard hit rate is way down, from 44.9% to 38.2%. It looks on the surface like pitchers simply aren't given him much to hit, and now it's up to Story himself to re-adjust and be more selective at the plate. He is walking at a decent 9.6% clip, but it's going to be tough for a guy with that K% to hit much above .220. Story does play good defense, so with that, a 10% BB%, and his power, that should be enough to keep him in the lineup, but if he is traded out of Colorado eventually to make room for top prospect Brendan Rodgers, Story's value drops like a rock. Well actually, it's already dropped significantly, but if you want to draft him next year, it may cost you an eighth round pick rather than a second.

Starling Marte, OF, PIT (#24)

Even putting aside the 80-game suspension that dropped his fantasy value to near zero, Marte hasn't been that good when he's been in the lineup. After hitting .311/.362/.456 with nine homers and 47 stolen bases last year, Marte is currently hitting just .265/.362/.456. We don't really know how long Marte was taking PEDs, but perhaps after seeing his home run total drop from 2015's 19, he started using in the offseason to try and get his power numbers back up. Anyway, Marte has also swiped just 14 bases, for a rate of one steal per 4.1 games versus last year's rate of one per 2.7. He's still just 28, so Marte has plenty of time to turn his career back in the right direction, but it's fair to question the validity of his pre-2017 numbers given the suspension. Marte does have six hits (and a HR) in his last three games, and with plenty of motivation to finish strong, he could have a nice September. I'm guessing though that he's gone from being a 2016 2nd round pick to a 2017 6th rounder.

Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (#25)

Various injuries have limited Braun to just 82 games this year, and when in the lineup, he's hit just .279/.341/.503 with 14 homers and eight stolen bases. Braun hit .305/.365/.538 last year with 30 homers and 16 steals, so the counting stats are obviously way down, as are the rate stats. Braun is homering once per 21 at-bats this year versus once per 17 in 2016 and once per 18.5 this season. At age-33, the days of 30+ steals are likely gone, but Braun at least should be good for another couple 15+ type seasons. Braun's 8.8% BB% and 18.3% K% are still right in line with his career numbers as is his .224 ISO, but Braun appears to be trading some homers in for doubles. Whether that continues is unknown, but overall, I do see a gradual decline coming, but nothing drastic.

Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM (#26)

To sum up Syndergaard's season:

Through four April starts: 1.73 ERA, 30:0 K:BB in 26 innings

4/27 – Diagnosed with a "tired arm" and has trouble lifting his arm above his shoulder

4/28 – Syndergaard refuses MRI

4/28 – Mets inexplicably allow Syndergaard to refuse MRI
4/30 – Syndergaard shockingly goes out and allows five runs in 1.1 innings and exits with an injury

5/1 – Syndergaard gets an MRI which reveals a partially torn lat muscle

9/2 – Syndergaard finally appears in a box score again, allowing two runs (unearned) in one inning of work in the Gulf Coast League

Remember folks, this is the same organization that feels it's reasonable to pitch Matt Harvey on short rest this week. Mets bashing aside, if you're counting on starts from Syndergaard to help you this year, I don't see it happening given the long layoff and the time needed to build up his pitch count. Syndergaard is easily a top-five overall pitcher when his arm is 100%, but I have little trust in the current Mets organization to manage him appropriately going forward.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (#31)

After an injury-plagued season in 2014 that saw CarGo hit just .238 with 11 homers in 70 games, he returned to his elite status the last couple seasons, posting OPS totals of .865 and .855 while hitting 65 home runs and falling three RBI short in 2015 of posting back-to-back 100 RBI seasons. This year has been a different story, as he's managed to hit just .241/.316/.363 with just eight home runs in 402 at-bats. That's a homer every 50 at-bats from a guy who two years ago hit 40 at a rate of one per 13.9 at-bats. Just a huge drop in power and batting average. Surprisingly, his 10.5% BB% is a career-best and his 21.5% K% is right in line with his past performances in that area. Maybe the Coors Factor finally got in his head, as this year, CarGo is batting just .197 on the road, with a mere two home runs in 203 at-bats. He's been useless (.526 OPS) against southpaws after showing massive improvement against them in 2016 (.273 with 10 homers in 176 at-bats). Given this is his walk year, Gonzalez isn't exactly setting himself up for a huge payday, making it likely his days in Colorado are numbered. Letting him go would open up at-bats for the likes of Ryan McMahon and eventually, Brendan Rodgers. If you're still a believer, you can probably get him pretty cheap in 2018.

Todd Frazier, 3B, CHW (#33)

My first thought at seeing this ranking was "were people really taking Todd Frazier in the third round in 12-team mixed leagues?" That said, from 2014-2016, Frazier averaged a .251-35-89 stat line along with 13 very valuable stolen bases. Plus the 40 home runs (and a .225 BA) probably inflated his ADP a bit as well. Frazier this year has been pretty bad, batting just .211/.337/.417 with 22 homers and four stolen bases. His 31.1% hard hit rate is quite low, and his soft hit percentage has increased to 24.3% compared to a 20.7% mark a year ago. On the plus side, Frazier's 14.1% BB% is by far a career-high, and his 22.4 K% is pretty solid as well. With a .206 ISO, it's not like his power has disappeared. It's just that more of his XBH's are turning out to be doubles this year as compared to the last couple seasons. The .273 Frazier hit in both 2012 and 2014 will likely be his career high, as he's a .246 career hitter, but we'll probably forecast 25-30 homers for him in 2018 depending on where he lands.

Jon Lester, SP, CHC (#39)

It seems crazy now to think that Lester was ranked five spots ahead of Chris Sale in our preseason rankings, but to be fair, Lester finished 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA, resulting in a second-place NL Cy Young finish. With nine consecutive seasons of 31 or more starts and a good young offense supporting him, we certainly expected more of the same. Instead we're getting a 4.46 ERA and he has just nine wins with maybe five more starts to go. Digging a bit into his ratios and advanced metrics, Lester really hasn't been that much worse this year other than the ERA. His 9.3 K/9 is his best K-rate since 2010 and a 2.8 BB/9 is right in line with his 2.9 career mark. Home runs have been the biggest issue (he's not alone), as his 1.35 HR/9 is by far his career-worst in any of the seasons in which he made those 31+ starts. Given Lester's 3.46 FIP last season, we certainly expected a higher ERA, but not quite this high.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (#46)

The stolen bases are there (he has 13), but it's certainly looking like last year's 28 home runs are the outlier given he averaged 15 homers from 2012-2015. Having a 15-20 homer / 15-20 stolen base guy at second base is just fine, but the .235 batting average was pretty unexpected given Kinsler never hit lower than .275 in any of the four preceding seasons. His 9.3% BB% and 12.9% K% are just fine and in line with expectations, but what is driving the low batting average? Is it partially bad luck given a .248 BABIP? Maybe that's part of it, as Kinsler's 36.5% hard hit rate is a career-best in that category and his GB and FB rates aren't anything out of the ordinary. He's swinging at slightly fewer pitches outside of the zone this year, so it's not that. He swiped five bases in August, so his legs seem to be fine and there's no report of any other injuries, so I almost have to think he's just in some sort of extended funk. Not very scientific, but it's all I've got.

Johnny Cueto, SP, SF (#48)

At this point, seeing Cueto opt out of the four years and $89 million in guaranteed money due after this season would be a massive surprise. Cueto had a great first year in San Francisco in 2016, going 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA, good enough for sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. This year has been a different story, as he's gone 6-7 with a 4.54 ERA and ugly 1.38 WHIP. Cueto's 7.8 K/9 is somewhat in line with his career totals, but a 3.1 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 are both well above expectations. He missed a month and a half with a forearm injury, so perhaps the arm was hurting even before he hit the disabled list. He's also dealt with a finger injury and an ear infection this year, so perhaps it's just a matter of getting and staying healthy while getting into a rhythm. I think he'll be okay in 2018.