The Long Game: Early 2017 Trends

With only a handful of games having been played so far and sample sizes being small, it feels too early to spot potential breakout players with any degree of confidence. I mean, have Elvis Andrus and Manuel Margot really become big-time power hitters? (Given how many shares I have of the Padres center fielder, I really hope the answer in his case is yes). However, there are some trends taking place across the league that I am keeping my eye on, and that could have meaningful fantasy implications for GMs who are able to exploit those trends before the competition.

Here's a quick rundown of a couple of things that appear to be happening just below MLB's surface in 2017:

Den of Thieves

Last season I took a long look at the lack of steals across the league, and through the first handful of games in 2017 there's been no real change. Teams are attempting 0.75 stolen bases a game at a 70.3 percent success rate through the first five percent (or so) of the schedule, numbers in line with the base-stealing environment since 2013. Depending on how competitive you plan on being in the category, that's either good news or bad news – good if you weren't committing resources to accumulating steals, as it means you'll need fewer of them to still score a few points there in roto leagues, but bad if you were as it means prices on the handful of elite basestealers around the league will continue to rise.

There is, however, an interesting situation developing in terms of those success rates on a team-by-team basis. The teams that are running more also seem to be the most successful at it. Only six squads – the Reds, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Royals, Yankees, and White Sox – have attempted at least one stolen base a game so far. Of those six, five of them have success rates of at least 80 percent, combining to go 49-for-57 (86.0 percent), far above the league average. The runt of the litter is the young White Sox, who are 4-for-9 through their first eight games with all four steals coming from different players.

Now, this could easily just be a product of the small sample size. However, it could also be a result of different organizational philosophies continuing to play out. The Reds, to pick the most prominent example, have committed to generating offense with their legs by giving Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza regular starting jobs. At the other end of the spectrum, the Blue Jays – as a team – are 0-for-1 on the basepaths through their first nine games, with Kevin Pillar being the only Toronto hitter so far with the temerity not to stand there and wait for an extra-base hit to drive him in. As more teams focus on stacking the top of their orders with OBP instead of pure speed, overall steal rates could continue to trend down, but the handful of teams still running like it's 1999 (the last year MLB teams averaged one steal attempt a game league-wide) could become the last guardians of an ancient and noble tradition.

Another possible explanation for the early segregation in success rates is simply a scheduling quirk. Teams know which catchers are easier to run on, and which pitchers are slow to the plate, and in a hyper-competitive environment where every edge is crucial, smart organizations will run when they have the advantage and play station-to-station when they don't. To put it another way, Francisco Cervelli is 0-for-11 already this season in throwing out runners, and while seven of those steals came against the Reds, even the Red Sox went 3-for-3 against him in their season-opening series. Boston, as a team, hasn't been above league average in steals on the season since 2013, but the Red Sox took advantage of a weakness in their opponent when they saw one.

If SBs remain one of the standard categories in 5x5 roto, there could come a day when streaming base-stealers becomes nearly as popular as streaming starting pitchers to rack up bulk wins and strikeouts, or only using Rockies pitchers on the road. GMs in leagues with daily transactions might keep a steals specialist on their bench and deploy him when facing a catcher or a team he can exploit.

In keeper and dynasty leagues, my advice remains the same as it was last year. If you get a chance to stash a potential future stolen-base champ or even just a solid contributor in SBs, you should do it. Much as chasing closers at market prices can be a poor use of resources, paying full freight at your auction for steals is increasingly a fool's errand. If you don't develop players from your farm system who can put you within striking distance of first-place points in the category, you may have little choice but to de-prioritize steals entirely and hope to scrape together a third-from-bottom finish while making up that ground elsewhere.

The New Bullpen Ace

Andrew Miller got all the attention last season for the way Terry Francona used him in the postseason, but from a fantasy perspective all that did was muddy the waters on the Indians' closer picture a little. Instead, the real bullpen revolutionary flew mostly under the radar, quietly going about his business and posting outstanding numbers. Despite his big 2016, however, the poor guy was a keeper afterthought in the offseason and may not have been protected at all due to his lack of a "high-leverage role" heading into this season.

I'm speaking, of course, of Chris Devenski.

Oh, that wasn't obvious? All the dude did in his rookie season was strike out 104 batters in 108.1 innings with a 2.16 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. No matter what format your league uses or how shallow it is, those numbers deserve a spot on somebody's fantasy roster. Maybe it was a fluke, though. What's he done so far in 2017? Oh, not much. Just two appearances. Of four innings each. With seven K's in each, and only one run and four baserunners allowed between them.

If Devenski was a starting pitcher who began his season with an eight-inning, 14 K start in which his only blemish was a solo home run, you'd be throwing almost your entire FAAB budget at him. (Granted, that didn't necessarily work out so well last year with Vince Velasquez, but I digress). Because he's "only" a long reliever, though, he still gets no respect from fantasy GMs.

Here's the thing. As relievers have become more and more specialized, less and less is being expected from starting pitchers. Guys like Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, the true aces who carry even just the possibility of a complete game every time they step on the mound, are a vanishing breed. Teams like the Marlins are now building entire staffs around the idea that they only need five innings from their starter, and the bullpen will take care of the rest. That is resulting in more appearances and quicker burnout from short relievers, however, especially when that day's starter can't manage to make it through those five innings.

A team with a pitcher like Devenski, who can provide multiple strong innings of relief, has a big competitive advantage. If the starter falters early, or the game goes to extra innings, their awesome long man can step in and keep the rest of the relievers from being pushed too hard, and the carefully-calibrated Swiss watch of setup men, lefty specialists and groundball machines that make up an efficient modern bullpen won't fall out of time.

Devenski's success in 2016 has already started to create imitators. The Reds have stashed promising young pitchers like Cody Reed in their bullpen and handed a rotation spot to the lead singer of a Goo Goo Dolls cover band instead, whereas in past years the young lefty would probably have been left to sink or swin as a starter. Reed's responded with five shutout innings over two appearances of his own. The Marlins expected to have Jeff Locke in that role to begin the year, but his arm troubles have delayed the implementation of that plan.

From a keeper perspective, there could be some excellent buying opportunities here. As Devenski showed last year, a pitcher who can give you triple-digit Ks with plus ratios has plenty of value, even if his win and save opportunities are limited. And if, as seems to be happening in Cincinnati, organizations start using that 'elite long reliever' role as a way to break in younger pitchers before transitioning them into the rotation, those cheap pickups can become core members of your pitching staff for the next few seasons, providing very nice returns on a small initial investment.