This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
Every year, we are surprised by the performance of players reaching new levels of production for the first time. As we prepare for the 2017 season, we wanted to ask former MLB scout Bernie Pleskoff some of the biggest questions on our minds with the hope of setting more realistic expectations for several key players.
Q: How good can Gary Sanchez be in 2017?
A: We have to remember that Sanchez didn't break out after his promotion to the Yankees last season. He actually broke out in the 2015 Arizona Fall League when he barreled balls off the walls and over the fences.
Don't expect the otherworldly numbers again from 2016 – especially the home runs. What you can expect is for pitchers to find the holes in his swing and exploit them, and he will have to adjust in return. I want to be cautious and conservative with Sanchez. Keep in mind the Yankees' lineup won't be loaded with thunder and lightning surrounding him, and that will impact the pitches he sees.
Sanchez is already one of the best catchers on the fantasy board, and I expect a batting average of .279 with 29 homers, 73 RBI and five stolen bases. I think we can live with that.
Q: Do you believe in Brian Dozier's power breakout?
A: We need to be realistic. Dozier hit 42 home runs last season – the highest total of his five-year big league career. If the past is prologue and history sets
Every year, we are surprised by the performance of players reaching new levels of production for the first time. As we prepare for the 2017 season, we wanted to ask former MLB scout Bernie Pleskoff some of the biggest questions on our minds with the hope of setting more realistic expectations for several key players.
Q: How good can Gary Sanchez be in 2017?
A: We have to remember that Sanchez didn't break out after his promotion to the Yankees last season. He actually broke out in the 2015 Arizona Fall League when he barreled balls off the walls and over the fences.
Don't expect the otherworldly numbers again from 2016 – especially the home runs. What you can expect is for pitchers to find the holes in his swing and exploit them, and he will have to adjust in return. I want to be cautious and conservative with Sanchez. Keep in mind the Yankees' lineup won't be loaded with thunder and lightning surrounding him, and that will impact the pitches he sees.
Sanchez is already one of the best catchers on the fantasy board, and I expect a batting average of .279 with 29 homers, 73 RBI and five stolen bases. I think we can live with that.
Q: Do you believe in Brian Dozier's power breakout?
A: We need to be realistic. Dozier hit 42 home runs last season – the highest total of his five-year big league career. If the past is prologue and history sets the tone for the future, the numbers aren't on the side of duplicating his home run performance. The pitching poor Twins could maximize his career year and use him as a trade piece to bolster the organization for the long haul.
Dozier offers fantasy owners a few solid category statistics – he's scored at least 100 runs in three consecutive seasons, I think he will hit at least .260 and offer another 28-30 homers. He will be hitting in a good Twins lineup if he stays in Minnesota (also, I'm not concerned with the park factor for him at Target Field). Much depends upon where he hits in the batting order; if he's leading off, he may get some good pitches to drive.
Q: Are you expecting Trea Turner to be a five-category star?
A: I've seen many excellent players struggle in their sophomore season. In reality, this will be Turner's first full season with Washington, but I think he defies the norm.
Turner has the tools to return an excellent batting average that flirts with .300, and the power necessary to provide at least 15 home runs. The real value will kick in with his potential to reach 50 steals, and he should score a ton of runs atop the lineup in Washington.
On draft day, Turner will be eligible at second base and outfield, plus he will add shortstop eligibility early in the year. I look for Turner to be a real pest as a catalyst for scoring runs and making things happen as the Nationals' spark plug.
Q: What is Andrew Benintendi's ceiling as a hitter?
A: Benintendi may be a guy that is more valuable to a big league roster than he is in fantasy. A terrific player, Benintendi gets much of his buzz from being an outstanding defender as well as a reliable, very consistent hitter for average.
I think his best return will be in a batting average. However, I have concerns about what he will return in home runs, RBI and stolen bases. Moderate numbers would look like .290 with 13 homers, 60 runs, 60 RBI and 18 stolen bases. Those are still good fantasy numbers, but my fear is that owners will pay superstar prices for a good, yet not great fantasy outfielder. His overall reputation may exceed his second-year offensive capability.
Q: What should fantasy owners expect of Yoan Moncada in 2017 and beyond?
A: Moncada has a combination of power and speed that makes him a special prospect. He has a big, strong frame with quick wrists, large forearms, a massive upper body and strong legs. A switch-hitter, he can succeed from both sides of the plate. He should be able to blast doubles and home runs with a few triples thrown in for good measure, but I think that production will come in the future, not in 2017.
I see Moncada beginning the season at second base in the White Sox's farm system. He needs to hone his defensive skills and instincts with less pressure than the big leagues offer. Moncada does not yet have the fluidity and loose, natural movements on defense. He is still thinking about what he has to do if the ball comes his way as opposed to responding naturally. His footwork looks awkward and tardy.
Still the best overall prospect in baseball, the White Sox and fantasy owners will ultimately enjoy watching Moncada smack balls to the gaps or over walls at big league parks.
Want more of Bernie's takes? Check out the Short Hops Podcast on iTunes!
This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.
