This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
I've been playing fantasy baseball since AOL was a thing, so I've seen my share of changes in how fantasy owners and so-called experts try and gain a competitive advantage in player valuation. We look at things like mechanics, but Matt Harvey seems to have excellent mechanics, and he has made just 46 starts over the last three years due to elbow/shoulder injuries. During that same three-year period, Chris Sale and his funky delivery totaled 89 starts. We have learned to look beyond counting stats such as wins and rate stats like ERA and WHIP, but even advanced metrics don't give us the complete picture.
Here are five primary things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:
1. Advanced Metrics
2. Youth and Upside Over Safety
3. How Players Finished the Previous Year
4. Pitchers Returning From Injury
5. Fastball Velocity
Advanced Metrics
All else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. FIP is a metric that incorporates strikeouts, walks and home runs while stripping out the randomness of balls in play. Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover sleepers. Here are the top-10 largest positive ERA/FIP spreads from 2016:
Wacha is an interesting case given his past performance, he seems likely to wind up in the bullpen for
I've been playing fantasy baseball since AOL was a thing, so I've seen my share of changes in how fantasy owners and so-called experts try and gain a competitive advantage in player valuation. We look at things like mechanics, but Matt Harvey seems to have excellent mechanics, and he has made just 46 starts over the last three years due to elbow/shoulder injuries. During that same three-year period, Chris Sale and his funky delivery totaled 89 starts. We have learned to look beyond counting stats such as wins and rate stats like ERA and WHIP, but even advanced metrics don't give us the complete picture.
Here are five primary things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:
1. Advanced Metrics
2. Youth and Upside Over Safety
3. How Players Finished the Previous Year
4. Pitchers Returning From Injury
5. Fastball Velocity
Advanced Metrics
All else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. FIP is a metric that incorporates strikeouts, walks and home runs while stripping out the randomness of balls in play. Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover sleepers. Here are the top-10 largest positive ERA/FIP spreads from 2016:
Wacha is an interesting case given his past performance, he seems likely to wind up in the bullpen for 2017. That leaves Ray as the most intriguing guy to me given his 11.3 K/9. If he can cut down the walks and slice a little off his home run rate, Ray can be a major fantasy asset.
On the flip side, a negative ERA-FIP indicates an element of luck and potential regression the following year. Here is that top-10:
Guerra is the intriguing name in this group, but after breaking out as a 31-year-old rookie, there seems to be little chance of a repeat given his .257 BABIP and average peripherals (7.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9).
Youth and Upside Over Safety
To win in fantasy, you must take risks. Sure, it's nice to have "safe" pitchers along the lines of Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel, but those types aren't going to win you your league if you have too many of them. I want to take fliers on young pitchers with gaudy minor league strikeout numbers. Last year in this space I recommended Carlos Rodon, Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley among others. Win some, lose some. Here are a few I have in mind for 2017:
Julio Urias, Dodgers
His inexperience showed at times, but his 3.6 BB/9 with the Dodgers should drop closer to his 2.8 minor league mark. The 20-year-old posted a 9.8 K/9 in 77 big league innings, making 180 strikeouts in 2017 possible. I foresee a cap of 160 innings.
Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks
He's no lock to win a rotation spot given last year's 5.02 ERA, but 9.1 K/9 is enticing.
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
Foltynewicz had some ugly outings, but control continues to improve and he averages 95.2 mph with this fastball.
Jon Gray, Rockies
Was actually better at home (4.30 ERA) than on the road (4.91 ERA). If he can improve on the road and maintain some success at home, his 9.9 K/9 makes him very enticing.
Jose Berrios, Twins
The 8.02 ERA will scare people off, but his control issues should improve.
Jharel Cotton, Athletics
Cotton had a 10.0 minor league K/9 and was solid in five MLB starts last year. I've always liked him.
How Players Finished the Previous Year
Strong 2016 finishers included a pair of Cubs (Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks), a Cy Young winner (Rick Porcello) and other fantasy studs such as Noah Syndergaard. Here are a few others to look at, as this chart represents the pitchers who improved the most over their first half performance (measured by ERA):
Pitchers like Jimenez, Anderson, Chacin and recently, Sanchez, have such spotty track records of performance that it's tough to recommend any of that quartet, regardless of their second-half ERA. Peralta is a guy I continue to scratch my head over, as he throws in the mid-90s, but has just a 6.4 K/9 for his career. Still, there's some breakout potential here. Verlander showed improved velocity while topping a 10.0 K/9 for the first time since his 2011 MVP season. He looks like a top-five fantasy starter again. Nova's return to Pittsburgh as a free agent undoubtedly helps his value. Manaea looks to be poised for a big jump in 2017 as a 24-year-old southpaw. Bettis' final 4.97 ERA and 1.41 WHIP will keep him off many 2017 draft boards, but his control is improving and he generates a fair share of groundballs. His 5.06 road ERA should improve in 2017.
Pitchers Returning From Injury
These guys come with different levels of risk, but that risk could drive their draft day prices down to a point where they become nice buy lows. Just don't have too many of them on your roster at once.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers
The Dodgers aren't counting on him, and you shouldn't either, but Ryu has a 3.28 ERA in 57 career starts. If he's healthy…
Homer Bailey, Reds
Bailey enters 2017 having made just eight starts in the past two years, but an ERA in the mid-3.00s with 180 strikeouts are both doable if he's over the biceps injury.
Carlos Carrasco, Indians
Carrasco turns 30 in April and has flashed ace-level stuff, but has also made 30 starts just once in his career. I'm still on board with his talent, however.
Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers
The dip in velocity is troubling, and neck injections are concerning. I'd stay away.
Garrett Richards, Angels
Perhaps he's that guy who can tear his UCL and avoid Tommy John surgery, but it's tough to be optimistic. It's already been announced that his innings will be limited.
Dallas Keuchel, Astros
Keuchel missed September with shoulder inflammation, but assuming that's not an issue this year, he could be a solid buy low. The 2015 Cy Young winner had a 3.49 ERA in his final 12 starts after a 5.54 mark in his first 14.
Lance Lynn, Cardinals
Lynn is a risk in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he should be ready by Opening Day, and if healthy, an ERA in the mid-3.00s and 170 strikeouts are attainable.
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Strasburg broke into the majors back in 2010 and has just one 200-plus innings season in his career. When healthy, his number are elite (3.17 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but don't draft him expecting 242 strikeouts (2014) again.
Fastball Velocity
Velocity isn't directly correlated with success, but it's been shown to help, particularly related to missed bats. Guys like Rick Porcello and Kenta Maeda showed last year that one can be successful in this era without mid-90s heat, but having a 95 mph fastball leaves a larger margin for error. So while Chris Sale, David Price and Jacob deGrom all lost more than one mph off their fastball, here are a few guys who showed year-over-year upticks in velocity, with mph increase in parentheses. (Minimum 100 IP per season)
Kendall Graveman, Athletics (+ 2.0)
Graveman's career 5.5 K/9 in 300-plus innings limits his fantasy appeal, but the improved velocity could lead to better strikeout numbers if he can further develop his breaking stuff.
Matt Shoemaker, Angels (+1.3)
He's still averaging just 91.5 mph with the fastball, but perhaps he can bump up last year's 8.0 K/9 a little.
Michael Pineda, Yankees (+1.3)
Pineda made a career-high 32 starts in 2016 while topping 200 strikeouts for the first time. If he's healthy, he can be a huge fantasy asset for his strikeout ability, but he'll need to figure out how to avoid so many long balls at home (2.1 HR/9).
Danny Duffy, Royals (+1.0)
Issues with the home run ball led to a poor finish, but Duffy was the team's ace after moving into the rotation in May. His 9.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 are very appealing.
Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks (+0.8)
Ray is a boom or bust pick, as a 7.98 ERA in his final six starts led to mediocre overall numbers (4.90 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). That said, look at those strikeouts – 218 in 174.1 innings (11.3 K/9).
This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.
