This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
Of the 10 players I recommended last year, just one had a breakout: Phil Hughes. A number of the younger players on the list, like Kevin Gausman and Peter Bourjos, were stymied by their managers, while Nolan Arenado, Brett Lawrie and Sergio Santos couldn't stay healthy enough to have the fantasy impact I had projected for them. The list of players to avoid was a bit stronger, as Carlos Beltran and Ubaldo Jimenez were two of the worst free-agent signings of last winter, and Curtis Granderson was not much better.
Opportunity will play heavily into this year's picks, as I look for players who have room to slump for a month without losing the job they have, and for those who face a weak field of competition for the job they want.
Nick Castellanos
3B – Detroit Tigers
The Tigers stayed with Castellanos throughout 2014 despite the rookie's poor line: .259/.306/.394, with just 11 homers, and poor defensive statistics at third base. Look deeper, and you see some good signs: he doesn't hit the ball on the ground -- just 35% of the time -- and his HR/FB of 7.5% was unusually low for a strong flyball hitter. Castellanos didn't fade in the second half, either, posting nearly the exact same line as he did in the first. He is going to hit with a ton of runners on base, batting behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, so as his power develops, he'll rack up RBI.
Of the 10 players I recommended last year, just one had a breakout: Phil Hughes. A number of the younger players on the list, like Kevin Gausman and Peter Bourjos, were stymied by their managers, while Nolan Arenado, Brett Lawrie and Sergio Santos couldn't stay healthy enough to have the fantasy impact I had projected for them. The list of players to avoid was a bit stronger, as Carlos Beltran and Ubaldo Jimenez were two of the worst free-agent signings of last winter, and Curtis Granderson was not much better.
Opportunity will play heavily into this year's picks, as I look for players who have room to slump for a month without losing the job they have, and for those who face a weak field of competition for the job they want.
Nick Castellanos
3B – Detroit Tigers
The Tigers stayed with Castellanos throughout 2014 despite the rookie's poor line: .259/.306/.394, with just 11 homers, and poor defensive statistics at third base. Look deeper, and you see some good signs: he doesn't hit the ball on the ground -- just 35% of the time -- and his HR/FB of 7.5% was unusually low for a strong flyball hitter. Castellanos didn't fade in the second half, either, posting nearly the exact same line as he did in the first. He is going to hit with a ton of runners on base, batting behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, so as his power develops, he'll rack up RBI. This will be the last year he's a bargain.
Delino DeShields
OF – Texas Rangers
The son of the player famously traded for Pedro Martinez, DeShields' prospect status faded after a mediocre year for the Astros' Double-A affiliate: .236/.346/.360, though with 54 steals. The Astros left him off their 40-man roster and the Rangers snapped him up in the Rule 5 draft. There's an enormous opportunity for DeShields to steal a starting outfield job for a team that needs the help. If he does, he'll rank among the AL leaders in stolen bases. If DeShields doesn't start, he could still stick as a bench player with speed, or even take on a semi-regular role at multiple spots. The Rangers' new manager, Jeff Banister, comes from Pittsburgh's coaching staff, a staff that used Josh Harrison as a similar player.
Nick Franklin
2B – Tampa Bay Rays
It seemed as if Franklin would get his break when the Mariners traded him to Tampa Bay as part of the three-way deal that got them Austin Jackson. The Rays left Franklin at Triple-A for a while, though, and eventually used him in just 11 games, in which he hit .206/.263/.353. There's opportunity in Florida, where the Rays have dealt away Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce. Franklin, in some ways, is a Zobrist starter kit, a switch-hitter with a broad offensive skill set who can't be a full-time shortstop. We don't know yet whether new Rays manager Kevin Cash will look to use a player the way Joe Maddon used Zobrist. We do know that Franklin can be a 15/15 guy if given the chance. Franklin will start 2015 eligible only at second base in most leagues.
Anthony Gose
OF – Detroit Tigers
This may be Gose's last chance at a career, now that he's been traded from the Blue Jays to the Tigers. In about a full season of playing time over three years, Gose hit just .234/.301/.332, and was never able to grab the center field job in Toronto. Gose runs well, though -- nine triples and 34 steals in that time -- and he brings one very important trait to Detroit: he bats left-handed. The Tigers are slated to start six right-handed batters most days, and if Gose can win the big half of the center field job -- platooning with Rajai Davis -- he'll help provide much needed balance. It seems like we've been talking about him forever, but Gose is just 24 years old. He may have just gotten the break he needs.
Jeremy Jeffress
RP – Milwaukee Brewers
Another prospect who has been around for a while, Jeffress could finally emerge as a closer in 2015. The Brewers appear set to go with Jonathan Broxton in the ninth inning, and Broxton's performance and health records make him unlikely to hold that role all season. Jeffress, cut loose by his third organization last April, returned to his first and was terrific, first at Triple-A (1.51 ERA, 27% K%) then in the majors (1.88 ERA, 25:5 K:UIBB). Jeffress worked at 96-97 mph last year, easily closer velocity, and seems to have learned how to throw that heat for strikes. He'll be one of the best late-round closer plays on draft day.
Brian McCann
C – New York Yankees
The debate over who the best catcher in baseball is no longer involves McCann, who has been a below-average hitter in two of the past three seasons. The Yankees' catcher has been one of the players most victimized by aggressive defensive shifting, going from a .293 hitter his first five seasons to a .251 hitter his second five. The power is still there as McCann has hit at least 20 homers in seven straight seasons. With more teams looking for pitch-framing rather than pitch-driving from their catchers, that kind of production is increasingly difficult to find in fantasy. McCann can build on last year's 23 homers and 75 RBI -- he had a low 12.2% HR/FB and hit in a Yankee lineup that was 14th in the AL in OBP.
Carlos Quentin
OF – San Diego Padres
When he plays, Quentin is one of the best hitters in baseball. In 2012-13, he was one of the 25 best hitters in the game by OPS+, but he had just 660 plate appearances in those two years combined. The Padres traded for Quentin in 2011 and tried to make him an everyday left fielder, and it was a disaster: 268 games missed in three seasons, execrable defensive play when on the field. After trading for an entirely new starting outfield, the Padres have to find a new home -- an AL home -- for Quentin. As a full-time DH, Quentin would be a significant fantasy asset, a potential .280/.360/.480 hitter with 25 homers, 100 RBI, and 80 runs scored.
Hanley Ramirez
SS – Boston Red Sox
For one year, Ramirez is going to have his old position eligibility in his new home ballpark, and that combination is going to win leagues. Ramirez's doubles-heavy righty stroke is a terrific fit for Fenway Park, and moving to left field should lessen the wear on his body that has cost him nearly 100 games the past two seasons. The reworked Red Sox lineup will be a boon to Ramirez's runs and RBI, and he's even good for 10-15 steals. Wherever you have him ranked is too low. He's the best fantasy shortstop in the AL and one of the six best fantasy players overall in the AL.
Carlos Rodon
SP – Chicago White Sox
The comparisons to Chris Sale -- who was in the majors just months after being drafted and spent his first full professional season in the White Sox bullpen -- are easy, of course. Polished college lefties, high draft picks by the Sox, questions about their long-term health…but Sale isn't the comp I want to make here. Rodon isn't going to the bullpen. No, the comp here is to Michael Wacha, who went from the 2012 draft to the 2013 World Series, and provided 64.2 innings of 2.78 ERA baseball in between. Rodon had already reached Triple-A by August of last year, and the now-competing White Sox have no business wasting his innings in the minors. Rodon may not start the year in the majors, but he'll be up by June, and he'll be a fantasy contributor from the jump.
Jacob Turner
SP – Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are gaining a reputation as a team that can rejuvenate pitchers' careers, with Jason Hammel and Jake Arrieta having career-best performances last season as starters, and Pedro Strop doing the same out of the bullpen. Turner could be next. Released by the Marlins at random last July, Turner was signed by the Cubs and given six starts. He didn't pitch well – 17:10 K:BB, 6.49 ERA -- but he's just 24 years old and has a good four-pitch mix including a fastball that he throws at 92-93 mph. There's just as much raw talent here as there was in Arrieta, and while projecting Arrieta's numbers may be too much, projecting Turner as a mid-rotation starter -- valuable in deeper leagues -- isn't.
Five guys you don't want on your teams in 2015:
Zach Britton
RP – Baltimore Orioles
One of the best stories of 2014, Britton went from a failing starter to one of the best closers in the AL, and he did it with one pitch: a two-seam fastball that he threw on nine of his 10 deliveries. It generated a 75% groundball rate, as well as a 1.65 ERA and 37 saves. In today's game, though, there's very little chance that a high-leverage reliever with a 22% strikeout rate can be a long-term success. Britton would have to sustain an almost unheard-of groundball rate to keep his job. The Orioles have some experience with this, having watched Jim Johnson come out of nowhere for two 50-save seasons before a rapid decline. Let someone else pay for Britton's 2014 stats.
Nelson Cruz
OF – Seattle Mariners
Cruz might have made this list just because he's a 34-year-old with a limited skill set coming off a career year, but by signing with the Mariners, he locked up his spot. Safeco Field is where right-handed power hitters go to die, and while Cruz can probably still fall into 20-25 long balls, he'll have a hard time generating RBI on a team that lives at the bottom of the AL OBP list, and he's not someone who has hit for average consistently since turning 30.
Josh Harrison
3B – Pittsburgh Pirates
The utility man's career year was almost entirely BABIP-centered, as he went from a .278 career mark all the way to .353, despite not controlling the strike zone any better than he had previously, and showing just a small change in his batted-ball mix. He benefited from a hot start and by a number of injuries that allowed him to move around the diamond while keeping his place in the lineup. Harrison has value as a bench player, but as an everyday third baseman -- his projected role in 2015 -- he's not going to hit enough. I can't see him matching any of his five-category stats from 2014; despite this, he's been going as high as the third round in offseason NFBC-style drafts. Avoid.
Dustin Pedroia
2B – Boston Red Sox
There are some ugly trends in Pedroia's performance, and when coupled with the fact that he's a high-mileage second baseman, they point to him as a player to avoid. He had a career-high strikeout rate last year, which in and of itself isn't terrible – rising league strikeout rates mean that lots of players are posting career-high strikeout rates. Pedroia, however, has become a groundball hitter the past two years, and the combination of groundballs and strikeouts is unproductive. He's losing his speed as well -- just six steals and no triples last year. He's all downside risk without much upside.
Jered Weaver
SP – Los Angeles Angels
Weaver's raw numbers belie his loss in skills, which are becoming a problem. A starting pitcher with a 3.59 ERA still seems like he's helping, but Weaver's ERA+, which normalized for park and league, shows that as 101 -- barely above average. Weaver's strikeout rate and K/BB have the same pattern -- seemingly fine, but losing ground relative to the league. He has never been overpowering, and he's relied on pop-ups and deception for a while. With a flyball rate approaching 50%, 2015 may be the year he falls apart.
This article appears in the 2015 edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
