FSGA Wagers and Props Draft

This week I participated in an FSGA Betting Props Draft with 11 other industry members. It's a unique format, so before I break down my approach and selections, here's the rundown:

• Each owner will be given a budget of $1,000 to place bets in a 9-round Fantasy-style snake draft. Each of the 9 rounds will carry a set amount that will be wagered in that round by each owner. The breakdown is as follows:
  • Round 1: $300
  • Round 2: $200
  • Round 3: $150
  • Rounds 4-5: $100 each
  • Rounds 6-7: $50 Each
  • Rounds 8-9: $25 Each
  • Round 10: A three-leg parlay (more on that later)
• The bets span the scope of major sports and sporting events through the MLB All-Star Break, including MLB, NCAA Hoops, NBA, NHL, NFL Draft, Golf, Tennis, Soccer, and Horse Racing. 
• During the snake draft, once a wager is selected, it is no longer available to the rest of the drafters. For example, once I took the Brooklyn Nets to win the NBA Championship with my first pick, none of the other league-mates could use that wager until the parlay round.

Draft and Strategy

I wanted to get things rolling with a pair of plausible championship wagers with solid odds. I started off in the hoops world, firing on the Nets to win the NBA title (+330 -- 2nd best odds) for $300 and Illinois to win the NCAA championship (+1600 --5th best odds). 

My thinking behind the Nets pick is that their Big 3 is the best in the NBA, and while their defense could be their undoing, I'm betting that their unstoppable scoring trio of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and now James Harden will be enough. This is also a small hedge that the Lakers, who are a veteran team that isn't overly deep, might run out of gas. And if the Anthony Davis Achilles' issue lingers into the postseason, it's not a given that the Lake Show even makes it out of the west. They certainly didn't look viable without Davis in Wednesday's drubbing from the Jazz. The 76ers give me some concern with the Nets, but overall I think the Brooklyn squad was a strong first pick at +330. 

With the Illinois pick, I went after a team with a  talented, veteran core led by Ayo Dosunmu (hope the nose is okay in time for the tournament) and Kofi Cockburn. Of course, the Illini dropped one on the road to a less-than-stellar Michigan State team shortly after the draft finished, so that wasn't what I hoped to see from my second pick. I won't overreact, though. Illinois is a well-coached team with the pieces to make a deep run in a year where Blue Bloods are down across the board. Plus, Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, and Villanova were all off the board by this point. If I wanted a plausible NCAA Champ, I couldn't wait around much longer. 

After starting with a couple of longer shots, I wanted to lock in a bet I felt was close to a lock but still available at plus-money. That bet was Justin Fields being the third quarterback off the board (+125). I personally view Fields as the better prospect to Zach Wilson, but the signs are pointing toward the BYU product being the second quarterback off the board behind Trevor Lawrence -- who was going for a hilarious -6000 as the first overall pick. Taking the positional number over the actual draft slot felt like the smarter play here as well given that trades could shake up the first few picks. 

Once we got to the fourth round it started to feel like a true Swing for the Fences pick was in order. I landed on Houston's Yordan Alvarez leading the majors in homers going into the All-Star break(+3000). Obviously, his knee issues could derail this wager before things even get underway, but if you were to guarantee that Alvarez was going to be in the Opening Day lineup, his odds wouldn't be +3000. This is a player who ranked above the 90th percentile in every Stat Cast batting metric in 2019. 

Alvarez is being eased into action this spring and hasn't been cleared for on-field activity just yet. That's not super encouraging for this wager, but there's still plenty of time. If he can just get healthy enough to take the everyday DH role, we might be in business. 

Next up was Ohio State making the final four at +350. The odds aren't great, and they look a little worse after Thursday's road loss to Michigan State. Still, this is an Ohio State team that ranks third in KenPom's offensive adjusted efficiency metric and has a quality résumé that features road wins over Wisconsin and Iowa, among others. The Buckeyes don't turn the ball over (14th in turnover rate) and are battle-tested enough to where a deep run is absolutely within the realm of possibility.
 

My favorite wager of the night was Julius Randle to win Most Improved Player (+3000). All the drafters were on a Zoom call together so everyone could talk trash, etc. When I threw down the Randle bet, the room had more reaction than almost any other prior pick. "Are you sure?" "His odds really changed a lot today..." This was a The Lady Doth Protest Too Much moment. I stuck to my gut and kept the bet. Even if Randle wasn't +6500 anymore, +3000 is still awesome for a guy who just got named to his first All-Star team shortly before the draft started. 

By the end of the sixth round, I started to get out of my depth. The boards for the sports with which I'm most familiar -- football, baseball, hoops -- were depleted by other drafters and I am hardly a sharp when it comes to soccer, hockey or golf. Luckily we have a deep bench here at RotoWire so I called upon some of my colleagues to help me navigate the endgame. 

Resident soccer stalwart Chris Owen gave me a handful of picks for Champions League and Euro 2021, including a (completely unbiased I'm sure) play on Liverpool (+650) that I ultimately fired on. 

Being from the DC area and needing to throw a bet down lest I hold up the draft room, I landed on the Capitals winning the Stanley Cup at +2000 with one of my final two wagers. 

For my final wager of the snake draft, I turned to RotoWire golf guru Bryce Danielson to help me out and sort through the PGA board. I said I wanted a longshot with some upside given the amount of the wager ($25) and he recommended Scottie Scheffler (+6000) to win the Masters. That was good enough for me as a final dart. 

RotoWire's Nick Whalen and Jake Letarski also helped me navigate the NBA and College Hoops boards.

The Parlay Round was a three-leg wager and the entire board was available. I could use a bet that had been selected during the draft if I saw fit, as could anyone else. I had plenty of longshots during the draft, so I decided to package three bets with shorter odds. I started out with LaMelo Ball to win Rookie of the Year (-410) and then doubled down on my prediction that Justin Fields will 1.) be the third quarterback off the board and 2.) be the No.4 pick overall. If all three hit, that's +247 for a $347 payout. 

Below I've included the full draft board along with a leaderboard with each affiliate's potential payouts.

Draft Board

Leaderboard